Thursday, August 31, 2006

Before I get a bunch of angry emails, allow me to explain the list below. The list represents the value of backup running back IF they were to be named full-time starter with little competition.

In other words, if player X gets five carries a game now and player Y gets none, that has nothing to do with the rankings because it’s based on potential. So I have Michael Bennett ahead of Cedric Benson, but that doesn’t mean I think Bennett will have a better season.

1. Chris Perry
2. Reggie Bush
3. Michael Bennett
4. Cedric Benson
5. D’Angelo Williams
6. Mike Anderson
7. Joseph Addai
8. Laurence Maroney
9. Michael Pittman
10. Travis Henry
Rumors die

Well it was worth a shot. The rumors of Travis Henry being the Titan's starting running back over Chris Brown have been squashed.

This whole story is a perfect transition into my post which you can look forward to later tonight. I'll be breaking down the top-10 backup running backs in the leaugue and later this week I'll do the same with reserve signal callers.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Easily the most challenging position to rank thus far, I present to you my top tight end rankings. I have a feeling I’ll be getting some emails about these rankings because they are unconventional to say the least.

1. Antonio Gates
2. Todd Heap
3. Jeremy Shockey
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Randy McMichael
6. Vernon Davis
7. Chris Cooley
8. Alge Crumpler
9. Jason Witten
10. Kellen Winslow Jr.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Rumors are swirling that Travis Henry will be the Titans starter Week 1 of the regular season mainly because the Titans coaching staff isn’t fond of current starter Chris Brown. I still haven’t heard this from a source not named “anonymous,” but everyone can use another running back so go ahead and pick him up.

I just dropped David Carr in one league in order to add Henry. I actually like Carr’s chances, but he was the third quarterback on the roster and starting running backs are hard to come by so I can live with it.

I’ve never been big on Henry, mainly because he coughs it up more than a cat with asthma, but the guy definitely has potential. In his sophomore season of 2002 Henry showed signs of becoming an elite back, scoring 14 times on 1,438 yards and 43 catches. Henry followed that up with another great year (1,356 yards and 10 touchdowns) but he hasn’t been a fantasy factor since.

The bottom line: If you have the roster space, Henry is worth a pickup, but don’t expect Barry Sanders type numbers from him.

Monday, August 28, 2006

My top-10 wide receivers.

Santana Moss and Hines Ward aren’t included and that’s not an accident.

1. Steve Smith
2. Chad Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Torry Holt
5. Randy Moss
6. Marvin Harrison
7. Chris Chambers
8. Terrell Owens
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Javon Walker

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Top-10 backs

Here are my favorite running backs. I really struggled with the choice of Alexander or Johnson, but I gave the nod to Alexander because Seattle plays San Francisco and St. Louis twice a year.

Portis owners must be sweating like Larry Allen in a sauna with his current status a mystery. These rankings are assuming Portis will be healthy.


1. Shaun Alexander
2. Larry Johnson
3. LaDanian Tomlinson
4. Clinton Portis
5. Tiki Barber
6. Edgerrin James
7. Steven Jackson
8. Ronnie Brown
9. Rudi Johnson
10. LaMont Jordan

Friday, August 25, 2006

The debut

If you’ve been enjoying my blog, I know you’ll enjoy the Norwich Bulletin’s new fantasy football page which debuts tomorrow.

I don’t want to ruin any surprises, so you’ll have to check it out yourself.

Also, you can log onto norwichbulletin.com and click on sports to vote in our weekly fantasy football poll. The results will be printed on the fantasy page every week.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

QB Rankings

Here’s a list of my top-10 quarterbacks for this season. This list looks much different than other publications, but I know in the end mine will prove more accurate.

1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Carson Palmer
4. Matt Hasselbeck
5. Donovan McNabb
6. Jake Delhomme
7. Marc Bulger
8. Kurt Warner
9. Daunte Culpepper
10. Drew Bledsoe

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Da Bears

I recently noticed how unbelievably soft the Bears schedule is this season, especially when it comes to opposing offenses.

Their opponents: Green Bay (2), Detroit (2), Minnesota (2), Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, New England, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

Assuming your playoffs are set for Weeks 14-16, the Bears have it very easy playing St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Detroit those weeks.

The Bears are far and away the best fantasy defense, but this information makes them even more desirable. Don’t be afraid to reach for them in the 5th round of your draft.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

You're welcome

A few days ago I told you all to draft Kevan Barlow sometime after the 10th round in your fantasy football draft. If you too took my advice you can send my thank you card to Norwich Bulletin sports department, 66 Franklin St., Norwich, CT 06360.

Truth be known, I didn’t know Barlow was going to be traded to the Jets at the time of my post. I was making the point that Barlow could have a monster season if given the opportunity with the 49ers. Well, he now has the opportunity in New York. Take it from a guy who has seen almost every one of Barlow’s NFL carries; A fresh start is just what he needs. Trust me, if this guy can look anything like he did a few years ago while splitting time with Garrison Hearst then you’ll be sending me more than a thank you card.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Draft position

Many fantasy experts agree on who the best players are at each position and strategies like drafting running back first. But if you ask the pros what the best draft position is, you’ll get several different answers.

Personally, I like the No. 3 spot this season or in a 12 team league I would love the No. 10 hole. The drop off after the top 15 picks (12 of which are running backs in my opinion) starts to become pretty significant, so the 10th pick would guarantee you two of those top-15 players.

My logic with the No. 3 pick is simple, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson are all great backs and the difference between the three is insignificant depending on the league you’re in. Alexander has a weaker schedule, Tomlinson will catch more passes and LJ has the potential. I’d be thrilled with any of those three guys and be happy picking a top wide receiver or running back with the 22nd overall pick.

Unlike most experts, I think picks four through eight are the worst spots on the board. Most people have Tiki Barber and Clinton Portis pegged as the fourth and fifth best players, but I think guys like Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown and Edgerrin James could have better seasons.

Saturday, August 19, 2006

My turn

Since I bashed ESPN’s “busts to avoid” in my last entry, I thought it would only be fair if I offered some of my own. If you guys disagree I want to hear about it.

Santana Moss – There is no way he comes close to his 1,483 yard effort last season.

Isaac Bruce – There are just way too many question marks here. His age (33), his injuries last season and a young Kevin Curtis breathing down his neck for playing time.

Anyone on the Bengals or Vikings – There’s a good chance any player on these two teams will be arrested for doing something stupid like driving under the influence going nearly double the speed limit or having an outrageous party on a cruise.

Aaron Brooks – If he’s available in your draft and you even think about drafting him, have a buddy slap you in the face. It’s early, but there’s already talks of Brooks riding the pine.
I beg to differ

ESPN.com’s fantasy football 2006 magazine features six “busts to avoid.” I think fantasy owners should avoid reading page 21 of that publication.
The six-pack is comprised of Mark Brunell, Willis McGahee, Joe Horn, Keyshawn Johnson, Antonio Gates and Adam Vinatieri. At least half of those guys will have a solid, if not great season in 2006.

Lets start with Keyshawn, who will be paired up with Steve Smith down in Carolina. When was the last time Johnson got a chance to play along a receiver as dominant as Smith? Never. Some will tell you that playing along side Smith could hurt his numbers because he’ll get less looks. I say it will create more opportunities for him especially in the red zone.

Keyshawn is a model of consistency, and this season his numbers should once again be right around 70 catches, 900 yards and six-eight scores.
The publications’ next mistake is Vinatieri. The guy is like the U.S. Postal service, he delivers in the rain, sleet and snow so just imagine what he could do in a dome. Sure the Colts lost their top running back but they’ll finish the season as one of the NFL’s best offenses and their kicker will benefit.

Finally, Antonio Gates is supposedly someone to avoid this season. Right. And you should also avoid the Publishers Clearing House van if it parks in your driveway. The magazine states the case that Gates is a great player, but someone will overpay for him in most leagues. The bottom line is that Gates is the top tight end in the league and he will outscore many starting receivers.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Three is the magic number

You all know the feeling. Your fantasy football contest is coming down to one final NFL game and in order to win it, you need to root against your favorite NFL team and/or root against players you own in another league. Ah, the dreaded conflict of interest.

I learned early on that although fantasy football is the greatest invention (besides caller ID) since ice cream cake, it can reach a point of diminishing returns if you’re in too many leagues.

No human deserves to go through thoughts like, “Well I need Manning to throw three scores, but if he does, I’ll lose in my other two leagues which isn’t the worst thing in the world because they aren’t the leagues I care about the most…But none of the touchdowns can be to Marvin Harrison or Dallas Clark because if they are I’ll lose in the league I care about the most.”

So how many leagues is too many? While even one league can pose conflicts of interest, I’ve found that three is the magic number. I suggest one “keeper league,” one league you care about most and one just-for-fun league. I’m not saying I don’t have these dreaded conflicts, but I’ve found that when you start playing in more than three leagues I seemingly have a conflict every week.

So remember boys and girls, when signing up for leagues this season, think about the number three. And if you are having trouble remembering “three” it’s also the number of games it will take Terrell Owens and the Big Tuna to have a blow up on the side line.

I’d be interested to hear how many leagues you guys play in a year, so don’t be shy.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Ads and Adrian

Not since Budweiser’s “what’s uuuuuuuuuup” advertisements have I looked forward to seeing commercials this much. ESPN’s new fantasy football commercials have me and my friends laughing out loud and talking about them to the point where I actually tune into ESPN in search of spots.

If you haven’t seen them, you’re missing out. My favorite depicts a man shopping with his significant other when he gets a message on his phone (the product being advertised) that Clinton Portis just scored a touchdown and he won him his fantasy football league.

The man looks at the woman and she says, “No, we’re not doing this here.” And he reminds her that they “had a deal.” She begrudgingly whips out a soft drink from her purse and pours it over his head in the middle of the store. If you haven’t seen it and the text isn’t translating the humor, look for the ad because it’s one of those “you had too be there” kind of things.

There was only one incident that had me laughing harder than ESPN fantasy football commercials this week and that’s the story about Saints quarterback Adrian McPherson getting struck and injured by a golf cart driven by the Titans’ mascot.

Check out the Associated Press’s lead on this story: “New Orleans quarterback Adrian McPherson went to the locker room early in the third quarter after a golf cart ridden by the Titans' mascot hit him at the end of halftime Saturday night.”

Man that cracks me up every single time. It’s unfortunate for McPherson that the only way he’ll get on my blog or any fantasy roster is by jumping in front of moving vehicles driven by opposing mascots.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Place your Betts

If you have an expendable player on your roster and you’re in a league with an unlimited number of injuries, then pick up Washington running back Ladell Betts.

According to NFL.com, Redskins coach Joe Gibbs said, “…obviously it’s going to be a while” before starter Clinton Portis returns to the field after dislocating his left shoulder Sunday night.

If that’s not enough to consider picking up Betts, then consider that there has been trade whispers about him landing in New York to replace Curtis Martin. The move isn’t likely, but it’s something to think about.

Betts has missed 16 games the last four seasons due to injury, so if you’re wondering whose next on the depth chart it’s Rock Cartwright.

Betts averaged 3.8 yard per carry as a backup last season and 4.1 in 2004, and could rack up some serious points in Gibbs’ run happy offense if given the chance. I’ll be watching this situation closely and you should too.

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Laurence and the Pats

Although Reggie Bush’s first NFL action will be stealing some headlines this weekend, I was more intrigued by the performance of another rookie – Patriots’ running back Laurence Maroney.

Maroney rushed for 66 yards on nine carries, including a 27-yard run and Corey Dillon finished with 27 yards on five tries in New England’s 26-23 loss to Atlanta. As it stands, Dillon and Maroney will be splitting carries this season but you have to like Maroney’s youth and potential over Dillon’s aging legs.

Dillon was a major disappointment season, averaging 3.5 yards per carry after getting 4.7 yard per attempt in 2004, but he did score 12 times.

I have a rule against drafting Patriots players not named Tom, but I would make an exception if Maroney fell far enough to me this season. Yeah I know the whole not owning Patriots players is irrational, but I don’t care.

The Patriots spread the ball around way too much for my liking and you can’t predict what they’re going to do. They throw touchdown passes to defensive players on the one-inch line and Brady finds so many different receivers a game that it’s tough for one player two pile up stats.

Also adding fuel to my ridiculous theory, the Patriots haven’t seen a 1,000 yard receiver since 2001 (Troy Brown) and no player has caught more than 78 passes the last three seasons.

If you have any irrational “rules” during drafts like my Patriots rule, I’d like to hear them.

Friday, August 11, 2006

Notes

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to see any of the preseason games tonight, but I noted plenty of fantasy football information as I dissected the box scores.

I told you in a previous entry to keep an eye on the Broncos running back situation, and things are still blurry. Tatum Bell rushed for 26 yards on five carries, but one was on a 15 yards. Rookie “starter” Mike Bell (seven carries, 26 yards) and veteran Ron Dayne (five carries, 12 yards) were both unspectacular based on the numbers. I didn’t think Denver’s backfield could be anymore difficult to predict, but it got worse Friday night.

Also from that game, rookie quarterback Jay Cutler and UConn product Dan Orlovsky both put up solid numbers. Obviously in a standard league it would be silly to pick these guys up because they aren’t starters, but keeper league owners may want to see if the two young guns stay hot throughout the preseason. But then again the preseason can be deceiving.

Some guy named David Kircus caught six passes for 76 yards and a score for Denver. Have I mentioned that the preseason can be deceiving?

The quarterback situation in Chicago isn’t being called a competition yet, but if Brian Griese keeps putting up these kind of numbers while Rex Grossman struggles then Grossman might be sitting the bench, where he is sure to find a way to get hurt.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Alex Smith actually looked like one as he completed 16-of-21 passes for 137 yards for the 49ers against a good Bears defense. To update the 49ers running back situation, Frank Gore caught five passes and rushed for 49 yards and a score on 10 carries. Kevan Barlow only rushed for two yards on one touch, I’ll be interested to see if that was Mike Nolan’s decision or if Barlow was injured or something.

Patriots’ rookie running back Laurence Maroney rushed for 66 yards on nine touches against the Falcons. If he’s somehow a free agent in your league pick him up immediately.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Play for keeps

You know that feeling when you get finished seeing a great movie and you can’t help but spread the word about how great it was? That’s exactlly how I feel about fantasy football keeper leagues.

I finally decided to try one a few years ago I quickly became obsessed. Anyone familiar with me, or my blog, knows I sometimes joke about fantasy football being an addiction. If that’s the case, keeper leagues are the crack cocaine of fantasy sports.

If you don’t know what a keeper league is I feel so bad for you, but allow me to explain. You get a group of serious players together and draft a team like usual, but you play multiple seasons and “keep” certain players. To insure turnover, a salary cap type system or a rule (like only keeping a certain number of players) gets put into place. In most leagues, each player is assigned a value, and sometimes that value increases every season depending on the settings.

For you Madden video game folks, think of fantasy football as a “season” and keeper leagues as “franchise mode.”

Keeper leagues are so much fun because there is a lot more strategy involved. For example, if your playoffs hopes are squished by the trade deadline, you can trade away stars for prospects and build toward the future. Also, while drafting, you must consider a players age because younger players obviously have a premium and older players always run the risk of injury or a drop in production.

Last night I was negotiating a trade with a fellow owner in a keeper leagues and we introduced draft picks for next seasons draft into the picture. Then we talked about conditional picks (Yes, I know we’re are sick). Think about this though, keeper leagues give you the ability to say things like, “Ok I’ll give you Larry Johnson for Shaun Alexander, but I want a 14th round pick next year and a 16th round pick if Alexander misses four games due to injury this year.”

Keeper leagues give you more options for trading and more options will result in more trade action and a league you’ll be thinking about all day long.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Which Bell?

Sure, it’s only preseason, but Friday’s Denver-Detroit game has one huge depth chart implications and should be examined closely by all fantasy owners.

News broke today that Broncos coach Mike Shanahan lists Mike Bell as his No. 1 running back at the moment. No, that’s not a typo. The undrafted Mike Bell is higher on the depth chart than both Tatum Bell and Ron Dayne.

The announcement is no reason for Tatum owners to start jumping off of bridges, but it’s kind of like when the dentist tells you that you need to get your wisdom teeth out. In other words, it’s not the worst news in the world, but it’s not exactly what you want to hear either.

Mike Bell will start Sunday and it’s his opportunity to show coaches and fantasy owners that he’s for real. For fantasy owners who have already drafted, pick Mike Bell up immediately. Unfortunately I can’t take my own advice because he’s such an unknown that he isn’t even in the database of any of my leagues.

If he does become a starter we know Bell will be playing for a winning team with a solid offensive line. And don’t forget all of the running backs who’ve come out of nowhere to have success in Denver (Mike Anderson, Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary).

I can’t say Mike Bell will be a star or even a Week 1 starter because like many of you I’ve never seen him play, but with the running back drought most leagues are experiencing it might be worth it to sleep with your computer and check as often as possible.

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Talking trash with a punch

Fantasy football just wouldn’t be the same without trash talk. I love it. I love warning opponents they’re going down. I enjoy pointing out when league mates are wrong and the occasional insult is a staple of my trash talking repertoire.

But verbal assaults are best when accompanied with roster moves that can improve your team and hurt your target’s chances at the same time. For example an owner, who shall remain nameless to protect his/her dignity, in one of my favorite leagues got a little out of hand with the trash talking. Of course, I fired back (several times) but today right above my post on the league forum he can find my acquisition of Indianapolis Colts QB Jim Sorgi.

Seems harmless right? Not quite. Sorgi is the handcuff for his pride and joy, Peyton Manning. The owner foolishly failed to lock up Manning’s backup, and if Manning were to go down, Sorgi would be a huge steal. His limited career numbers are enough to make you at least raise an eyebrow (five TDs and only one INT) and Helen Keller could have put up big numbers in the high powered Colts offense.

Will the move pay off? Probably not, because Manning hasn’t missed a game since he was drafted in 1998. If it does however, I’ll be throwing a “Peyton Manning broke his leg” celebration party where I’ll tell the victim that the only reason I had Sorgi on my roster was because he couldn’t shut his mouth.

If anyone has any stories about trash talk I’d love to hear ‘em. I know people are reading this thing, but I’d like to seem more interaction with you guys.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’ll be out purchasing my Peyton Manning voodoo doll.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Something to keep an eye on

With the trade rumors swirling around Jerry Porter it’s time to make a waiver wire move or two now just in case, especially if you’re in a league with unlimited roster moves.

The two guys to consider are Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry. Not exactly Jerry Rice and Art Monk we’re talking about here, but they’re both young and have shown flashes of potential.

Curry only played in two games last year, but in 2004 he racked up 50 catches, six touchdowns and 679 yards in 12 games.

Gabriel’s NFL resume is even less desirable, but he did catch eight passes for 100 yards and a score in his final game last season.

If you have room on your roster, pick one of these guys up now. Playing alongside Randy Moss has its benefits too.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Gore or Barlow?


Kwame Harris, Anthony Clement, David Baas, Adam Snyder, Justin Smiley and Eric Heitmann.

You probably sound a lot like an owl right now.

Those guys you’ve probably never heard of were “blocking” for 49er running backs Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore last season. This season the 49ers offensive line will feature 2002 pro bowler Jeremy Newberry (returning from injury), 10-time pro bowler Larry Allen (free agent) and Jonas Jennings (returning from injury) who has the potential to end up in Hawaii when healthy.

While the new faces on the O-line won’t be enough to get the 49ers into the playoffs this season, stealing Gore or Barlow late in drafts could help you make you make a postseason run. The revamped offensive line combined with the fact that the Niners clearly didn’t trust quarterback Alex Smith last season are good reasons to suspect sharply improved numbers from San Francisco’s backfield.

But who will get the bulk of the touches in 2006? Gore or Barlow?

Most publications lean toward Gore and my Summer drafts reflect those opinions, but if you are a gambling man like myself, hold off on Gore (usually a 4th-5th round selection) and snag Barlow with a pick sometime between rounds eight and 10.

In 2003, Barlow looked nasty rushing for 1,024 yards (5.1 YPC) and seven touchdowns. In the last two seasons Barlow hasn’t rushed for more than 3.4 yards a touch, but it’s really a mystery why.

There was no big injury. Age isn’t an issue (he’s 27). Despite the label “starter” Barlow has averaged the same amount of carries the past two years as he did in 2003 so it wasn’t the work load. Circumstantial evidence suggests that Barlow’s decline has more to do with is supporting cast (or lack thereof) by the bay in recent years.

In 2006, Barlow will actually have players around him so defenses won’t be able to key on him like they did they past two seasons. Legitimate receiving threats in Antonio Bryant (free agent), Vernon Davis (6th overall pick in this season’s draft), and Eric Johnson (returning from injury) should do the trick.

Johnson quietly caught 82 passes in 2004 and he will be the 49ers second option at tight end behind Davis, but they should see plenty of time on the field together. The 25-year-old Bryant is coming off a career year, and regardless of what you may have read, he’s an upgrade from Brandon Lloyd.

Guys like Amani Toomer, Mark Clayton and Greg Jones will get picked ahead of Barlow at your draft so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. If I’m right, you’ll thank me. If I’m wrong you know where to find me.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Do you need help?

Nobody takes fantasy football addiction seriously so I have made a list of criteria to establish if you have a problem. If you find yourself relating to six or more of the 12 scenarios on this list, then there's reason for concern. Eight or more and you should seek help immediately. If you relate to more than that then there’s nothing I can do for you.

12. If you keep a calculator at your computer so you can crunch fantasy statistics.

11. If you’ve broken more than two remote controls in a single season as a direct result of something having to do with your fantasy league.

10. If you keep your favorite fantasy football publication in the bathroom next to your throne.

9. If you name your children (or pets) after players who have won you past championships.

8. If you’ve ever spent more than 90 minutes negotiating a single trade.

7. If you root harder for your fantasy football team than your favorite NFL team or if you’ve ever rooted against your favorite team because it was playing your starting running back.

6. If you’ve ever called out of work or missed a wedding, anniversary, or other family function to attend a draft or work on a big trade.

5. If your significant other can tell the result of your weekly match based on your mood.

4. If you’ve ever had a dream relating to fantasy football, stop reading this and get help now.

3. If you bought a DVR so you can tape games on Sunday and break down footage like ESPN’s Ron Jaworski.

2. If you’ve ever made a trophy of any kind for yourself after you won a league.

1. If you have ever used Microsoft Excel to predict a fantasy players production.