Expert picks

My picks last week were dead on, so I suggest you take my advice this week Start these guys.

Eric Johnson – The 49ers’ tight end is happy to be starting again so expect big things, especially because he’s playing the Chiefs. It’s true that most of Johnson seven catches last week came against prevent defenses, but it was only two years ago that Johnson caught 82 passes. Start him.

Donald Driver – Philadelphia’s secondary is hurting bad with two cornerbacks out and their best safety questionable. Expect Favre to target Driver at least 10 times. Driver should notch 100 yards and a score.

Terrell Owens – It looks like he will be a game-time decision, but you’ve got to figure he’s going to get the start. Don’t worry about the hand, he is a must start if he plays. T.O. always shines when the spotlight is on him and if he plays after this week of controversy then it will be shining bright.

Michael Robinson – He is the 49ers new goal-line back and the 49ers should get plenty of opportunities on the goal line against the Chiefs. I’m starting Robinson over Kevan Barlow in one of my very touchdown heavy leagues. He’s a risky pick, but if you’re short at running back this week go for it.

John Kasay – Trust me on this one. I have a top-secret system for calculating a kicker’s success each week. Last week in the Bulletin I told you to start kicker John Carney against the Falcons and he ended up being the best kicker of the week with three field goals, one from 51-yards out, and a couple extra points.

Running back power rankings headed into Week 4. Again, I want to stress these rankings reflect how I think the following fantasy backs will do from Week 4-Week 17 taking into account strength of schedule and other factors.

1. LaDanian Tomlinson
2. Larry Johnson
3. Steven Jackson
4. Willie Parker
5. Brian Westbrook
6. Rudi Johnson
7. Willis McGahee
8. Edgerrin James
9. Shaun Alexander
10. Chester Taylor

As requested from a reader, here are my Week 4 wide receiver rankings. Running backs are next. Please note these rankings reflect how players will do for the rest of the season, not in Week 4.

1. Steve Smith
2. Chad Johnson
3. Marvin Harrison
4. Terrell Owens (When healthy)
5. Larry Fitzgerald
6. Torry Holt
7. Donte’ Stallworth
8. Javon Walker
9. Anquan Boldin
10. Donald Driver

Come on Tony!

I will have another blog entry after the game, but I have to bring something up that can't wait.

About two minutes ago, ESPN announcer Tony Kornheiser just said the Falcons have to "worry about getting swept up by a wave of emotion."

Hey Tony, you might want to go easy with words like "wave" and "swept away" during the Saints first home game since New Orleans was ravaged by hurricane Katrina.

Simply the best

I would like to take this opportunity to pat myself on the back because I’m about as modest as Terrell Owens.

As you see in my last post, I predicted a breakout game from Bills WR Lee Evans. The same Lee Evans who averaged two catches and 23 yards in the first two weeks of the season. The same Lee Evans who an ESPN analyst recommended you sit, I told you start and if you listened you were rewarded with a solid 107 yard day on eight catches. As I’ve said all along, I’m not like the other “experts.” They make obvious predictions. I predict that a struggling receiver like Lee Evans will have a 100-yard day and come through like Big Papi in the clutch.

I also predicted solid games from Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant against a good Eagles defense. I was right on about Smith, even though others expected him to crumble against his first “real test.” Bryant’s numbers would have been better if a deep pass in the fourth quarter wasn’t called back because of a holding penalty.

Stay tuned for more real fantasy football advice.

Here are some of my favorite picks for tomorrow’s games that I didn’t have room for in today’s paper.

*Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant

These two have been on a role lately and hasn’t thrown an interception in the first two weeks of the season. Philadelphia’s defense is hurting bad without their best pass rusher, Javon Kearse, and their No. 1 and No. 3 cornerbacks. The 49ers are at home too so I expect this to be a back-and-fourth high scoring contest with lots of passing.

*New England defense

You just know the Patriots want to make Denver look bad after the playoff loss. Add to that Jake Plummer’s recent struggles and this could get ugly for the Broncos real fast.

*Lee Evans

Evans has been mediocre all season long and it’s only a matter of time before he busts out. I think this is the week we see over 100 yards and at least one score. The Jets defense is certainly nothing special.

Week 3 QB rankings

1. Peyton Manning
2. Carson Palmer
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Tom Brady
5. Matt Hasselbeck
6. Jake Delhomme (with a healthy Steve Smith)
7. Kurt Warner
8. Eli Manning
9. Drew Bledsoe
10. Michael Vick (I had to do it)

TD-Rex

Like most fantasy owners, I thought it was a typo when I saw on television that Bears quarterback Rex Grossman threw for four touchdown passes (four!) and 289 yards last week. Grossman, who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues, is turning heads quicker than a Reggie Bush spin move, but can he keep it up? No.

Grossman is not the kind of guy you can depend on to be a No. 1 quarterback, but as I wrote in Saturday’s Norwich Bulletin before the big game, he can be counted on as your top backup and 20 touchdown passes is realistic.

One thing going for Grossman is the beats horrendous schedule which I’ve brought up several times in the past. Some things are worth repeating. The Bears 2006 schedule is as follows: Green Bay (2), Detroit (2), Minnesota (2), Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, New England, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

Another thing on Grossman’s side is the emergence of wide receiver Bernard Berrian, who has quietly put together a nice start to 2006 with two touchdowns on 138 yards and six catches in two games. With Berrian keeping defenses honest, it opens up opportunities for Muhsin Muhammad, who I feel is one of the top-8 most talented wide receivers (this doesn’t mean he is a top-8 fantasy WR) in the NFL. Muhammad has racked up 10 catches and 161 yards this season and those numbers will only get better if Berrian continues to make circus catches and score every week.

Fragile Fred

Fred Taylor notched 92 yards on 22 carries against Pittsburgh Monday night, and he looked good doing it. It was a solid fantasy performance but as usual, Taylor looked a lot better than his numbers indicated.

Taylor looked shifty enough for ESPN announcer’s to mention that Taylor told them he feels like he’s a rookie again. I’ve always liked Taylor a lot, but the obvious problem with him are his injuries.

Guys like Taylor I call lemons. No not “lemon” as in a car that breaks down after you buy it. Look around on draft day. Whoever drafts Taylor probably made a face like he/she just bit into a lemon because his injuries are almost inevitable. If he can stay healthy, Taylor could be a super sleeper this season and help lead you to the promise land. It’s tough to call an injury prone guy like Taylor “underrated,” because he’s not getting any younger, but tonight’s game had me wishing I had drafted him.

Some quick predictions for Week 2…

*Whoever is announcing the Packers game will make excuses for Brett Favre after he throws his third interception. Should sound something like this, “Most of Brett’s interceptions come when trailing in situations like this. Man, you have to admire a super hero like Brett Favre.”

*Lee Evans will record over 125 yards and two touchdowns against Miami.

*Lamont Jordan will record 1.25 yards and two fumbles against Baltimore.

* Jake Plummer will actually score a positive number of fantasy points. I know I’m going out on a limb here, but I think if he’s careful he can do it.

* For the first time in NFL history, the Raiders-Ravens game will be ended prematurely because of a mercy rule.

*Reggie Bush will sustain a season-threatening injury. Seriously, I just have a feeling.

*Larry Johnson will catch an absurd number of passes as the Chiefs barely notch a win.

For real?

You won’t hear me say this very often, but I have no idea what to expect from the defenses of two teams this week. Detroit’s defense held Shaun Alexander and Seattle in check last week just as the Rams did against Denver.

Are these two defenses for real? Honestly I have no clue, but if they’re available in your league (they should be) it might be worth picking one up if you can afford it. My philosophy is “If you think about picking someone up, chances are you should.” Championships are won and lost by players from the free agent pool like Drew Brees a few years ago.

St. Louis made Jake Plummer look silly which is scary considering the Rams have more weapons than Rambo on the other side of the ball. This week’s matchups of St. Louis vs. San Francisco and Detroit vs. Chicago should be real interesting.

You’ve Gado love the trade

It was one of the quieter NFL trades these past few weeks, but Houston’s acquisition of Green Bay running back Sam Gado could have the biggest impact on the league before the season is over.

Gado, who averaged 4.1 yards per carry and scored six times last season, will be a nice fit with the Texans. A real nice fit. If you think you can get Gado on the cheap then go for it because 1,000 yards isn’t out of the question. Expect the big man to split carries with Wali Lundy early on, but the cream will rise to the top of the depth chart before the season is over.

With hardly any other weapons on offense last season, Gado looked shined last season. Houston’s big weakness is its offensive line, but Green Bay’s front five aren’t exactly pro bowlers either. Houston has a decent passing attack when David Carr isn’t laying on his back and that will open up opportunities for Gado.

I would trade a receiver ranked between 20-30 for Gado. You should too.

Move of the week

This week the guy to pluck from your free agent pool if he’s available is New Orleans wide receiver Marques Colston.

Colston looked decent last week catching a touchdown on four catches and 49 yards. The best part about the young receiver is that he’s also eligible to play tight end in most leagues so you can add to your receiver and tight end depth. I’m not saying Colston will be able to start for you every week, but he could be a top backup and who knows, maybe he’ll bust out and become a starter for you.

Bye weeks start in Week 3 and the injury bug is always right around the corner so add Colston today.

Tomlinson

I know it's against the Oakland Raiders, but I'm watching the Chargers offense right now and they look lethal. At one point in the first quarter, a friend of mine calculated that LaDanian Tomlinson was on pace for 5,558 yards this season. In the words of ESPN's Kenny Mane, "That would be a record."

Seriously though, at first I thought San Diego was scared to let Phillip Rivers throw the ball. As I write this, he's 4-for-5 and looking pretty darn good. One of the big questions entering 2006 was whether or not San Diego's offense could be as dominating without Drew Brees. Yes it's against Oakland. Yes it's only the first quarter, but I beleive Rivers and Tomlinson answered that question tonight.

Some random thoughts after Sunday’s games:

*The Bears defense is scary. If you took my advice and drafted the Bears early I bet you’re smiling right now after Chicago’s shutout of Green Bay. Simply a dominant performance.

*If you played Jeff Wilkins this week, I am sorry. Six field goals is outrageous.

*I would love to see a stat of how many games the Lions have lost by less than four or five points in the last couple years. I bet they lead the league.

*San Francisco’s Alex Smith looked great in the 49ers loss to Arizona and as I’ve been saying all along, Davis proved today he will be a top-10 tight end this season.

*Shaun Alexander owners have to be disappointed with their No. 1 pick only tallying 51 yards on the ground against Detroit. Let the Madden Curse whispers begin.

*The hit that Trent Green took was horrifying. I’m no doctor, but you’ve got to wonder if Green’s career is done. With Green out, the fantasy value of Lawrence Tynes, Samie Parker and Eddie Kennison all fall. I’d be concerned about LJ too.

*It was nice to see Kellen Winslow get in the end zone today. If Winslow and Edwards are completely healthy, the Browns might be a winning team this year.

*Frank Gore is a beast. Enough said.

*Donte’ Stallworth? See Frank Gore.

*To my surprise, David Carr and Reggie Bush looked good today. I’m still sticking to my guns though, Bush will struggle to find the end zone and Carr will be hurt by the fact that his O-line is awful. Despite Carr’s good statistical game, he was still sacked five times.

A new starter

Alvis Whitted will get the start Sunday against a week San Diego defense.

That’s right. Alvis Whitted. When the Jerry Porter trade winds were active Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel were the likely replacements. But now that Gabriel has been shipped off to the Patriots, it’s Whitted who Oakland coach Art Shell named starter.

This one really left me scratching my head, but you’ve got to wonder if Shell knows something we don’t. If Curry got the nod, I could understand that because Porter and Shell haven’t been seeing eye to eye, but maybe Shell has something special in mind for Whitted.

I’m starting Whitted in one league over Braylon Edwards and Samie Parker because San Diego’s secondary is a disaster. We’ll see how that works out. If he’s still available in your league, pick Whitted up immediately and cross your fingers with me.

Just a few random thoughts on tonight’s opening NFL game.

*He’s not worth a spot on your roster until Chris Chambers or Marty Booker gets injured, but Wes Welker sure looked good catching the ball and returning kicks.

*Daunte Culpepper looked great at time and horrible at others. I’ll chalk that up to rust, but a couple more sub-par performances and I’d be concerned. I’m a bit concerned about Miami’s offensive line though.

*I never thought I’d say this, but Charlie Batch might actually be a top-10 backup quarterback.

*Willie Parker looked great, but it’s a shame seeing him on the sideline when the Steelers are inches away from a touchdown he helped set up.

*Randy McMichael was very disappointing.

*Does Hines Ward age? And it’s a good thing you don’t get fantasy points for blocking because Ward would be the No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL.

*Jeff Reed looked awful. What was up with that shank? There was no wind and he later added an ugly kickoff. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Here are some more players you should avoid owning in 2006. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

*Jerry Porter. It seems Raiders coach Art Shell and Porter aren’t getting along too well. That’s not good if you’re a receiver. Porter lost a lot of value on my draft board because of the disputes with his coach, and a look at his game log reveals he is the definition of inconsistent.

Jerramy Stevens. Even when he gets healthy he’s not a top-15 tight end. Stevens had more drops in the Super Bowl than AOL dialup. He’s nothing special, but owners keep waiting for him to bust out. It’s not going to happen, especially in Seattle.

*Every rookie wide receiver. Sure, one of them could break out but don’t count on it. Every position has its share of draft busts, but receivers seem to be more common. Troy Edwards, Rashaun Woods and Peter Warrick are just a few recent examples of receivers with a lot of hype who didn’t quite pan out.

I’ve mentioned several of my favorite sleeper picks here as well as in my weekly column. Here are three of my favorite sleepers for the 2006 season I’ve yet to mention.

*Charlie Frye – He wasn’t terrible last season and this year he’ll have a supporting cast in the form of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. If I could put an entire offense on this sleeper list, it would be the Browns for the three names mentioned.

*John Kitna – It was only three years ago that Kitna threw for 3,591 yards and 26 touchdowns. Now he’s in a Mike Martz offense, and we all know Mike Martz goes to the air more often than Southwest.

*Samie Parker – He came on strong, catching at least four passes in five of his last six games. The Chiefs love him, and so do I.

Top-10 Kickers

1. Adam Vinatieri
2. David Akers
3. Neil Rackers
4. Shayne Graham
5. Lawrence Tynes
6. John Kasay
7. Josh Brown
8. Jay Feely
9. Jeff Reed
10. Mike Vanderjagt

Patriot games

In an earlier entry I mentioned the only New England players worth drafting based on their value are Tom Brady and Laurence Maroney. That was before the Patriots acquired former Raiders receiver Doug Gabriel. Go scan your free agent pool for Gabriel right now.

Gabriel has never caught more than 40 passes or three touchdowns in a season, but New England’s depth at wide receiver is thinner than Todd Pinkston, so he’s now a starter.

It looks like Deion Branch is on his way out of New England and he’s going to burn more bridges than Napoleon on his way out so Gabriel could be New England’s No. 1 wide receiver very soon. There are no other potential No. 1 wide receivers who might be available as free agents in your league, so grab him.

Branch has been rumored to go to the Seahawks or the Jets so now might be a good time to unload bubble starters like Nate Burleson, Justin McCareins or Jerricho Cotchery. If you own Darrell Jackson, then you may want to wonder if acquiring Branch is a sign that the Seahawks are concerned about his health.

My favorite defenses in standard scoring leagues

1. Chicago
2. Carolina
3. Seattle
4. Pittsburgh
5. Jacksonville
6. Indianapolis
7. Baltimore
8. New York Giants
9. Dallas
10. New England

Best backup quarterbacks

For the record, these rankings are for regular leagues and not keeper leagues.


1. Kerry Collins/Billy Volek
2. Matt Schaub
3. David Garrard
4. Brian Griese
5. Josh McCown
6. Kelly Holcomb
7. Joey Harrington
8. Tony Romo
9. Vince Young
10. Anthony Wright