BFFC Challenge Schedule

Week 4:

Chris Fabry vs. Tony Farmer


Laura Steinmeyer vs. Ned Higgins *

MVP Sports Bar vs. Don Benjamin

Matt Stout vs. Stan Sims Sr. & Jr.

Lee Elci vs. Toby Stanley

Chris & Joe Truman vs. Aaron May

*Game of the Week

Early sleepers

Here are some Week 4 sleepers:

*Darrell Jackson (vs. Seattle)

*Jon Kitna (vs. Chicago)

*Patrick Crayton (vs. St. Louis)

*James Jones (vs. Minnesota)

*Lee Evans (vs. N.Y. Jets)

Marshall Plan

Brandon Marshall, AKA Mini T.O., proved himself this week to all the doubters who didn’t believe me when I called him the 2007 version of Marques Colston.

I am proud to say I own Marshall in every single one of my leagues and I drafted him in all, but one. Marshall has tallied 17 catches for 267 yards and a touchdown this season, and those numbers should be a lot better.

I usually hate when fantasy owners talk about points they “should have had” but in this case I can’t resist. Marshall could easily have two more touchdowns this season because he was tackled at the one yard line Sunday and nearly broke a tackle that would have given him a touchdown in overtime last week.

A closer look into Marshall’s numbers suggest he will be racking up plenty of touchdowns this season. Of his 17 catches this season, Marshall has notched 14 first downs and a touchdown.

Add Leonard

It was announced today that Rams running back Steven Jackson has a partially torn left groin. Stop grimacing and squirming and go pick up Brian Leonard. Seriously, could that sound anymore painful?

Of course if you listened to me on September 2nd, you would already have Leonard on your roster.

(On September 2nd I said the following, “Brian Leonard – Don’t expect Leonard to be good enough to hurt Steven Jackson’s value, but Leonard could be a valuable asset in leagues that reward for receptions. Leonard should be good enough to get two or three fantasy points per week for you when you’re desperate for a RB replacement and if Jackson goes down, the sky is the limit.”)

If you took my advice, you will thank me soon because Leonard has all the tools to be an great RB2 in most leagues. Most “experts” are only willing to calling him a “decent flex option” but they are underestimating him. Leonard’s backup is Travis Minor, who is no threat to vulture goal line carries and he has great hands.

Oh and if you want to see something cool...go to Google, click on "images" and type "Brian Leonard leap." It's his trademark.

Best sites

I thought I would share with you all some of my favorite fantasy football related websites. Feel free to share your favorites as well....

*www.rotoworld.com

*www.rotowire.com

*www.fftoday.com

*www.cbssportsline.com

Weekend sleepers

*Jeff Garcia

*Jeff Reed

*Sammy Morris

*Vernon Davis

*LenDale White

BFFC Trade Alert

Two trades went down today in the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge. Details are below.

*Chris and Joe Truman (2-0) trade Fred Taylor and Amani Toomer to Chris Fabry (0-2) for Eddie Kennison and Dallas Clark

*Tony Farmer (1-1) trades Derrick Ward and Joe Horn to Aaron May (1-1) for Joey Galloway and Wes Welker.

The first deal is interesting because nobody really knows when Eddie Kennison will return. The length of his injury could determine who got the better end of the deal. The second trade is interesting because I have Brady and none of his receivers until I landed Welker and May has Brandon Jacobs so Ward will give him protection.

Sound the Horn

My pickup of the week is Joe Horn, whose stock couldn’t get much lower after two awful outings. Horn is a free agent in some leagues and can be had for chump change in other leagues because age has caught up to him.

While it’s true Horn isn’t the same guy he was five years ago, I think owners are forgetting these two games came on the road and in Atlanta’s two toughest games of the season in terms of passing defense. The Falcons remaining opponents are Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, New York Giants, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, St. Louis, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Arizona.

Could it get any easier against the pass? The more Horn and Harrington work together they better they’ll be. Look for Horn’s production to improve starting next week.

A hushed crowd

Where are all the doubters? I guess they're busy wiping egg of their faces.

Of all the preseason advice I offered, two of the suggestion that drew the most criticism involved Frank Gore and Jake Delhomme. Some laughed when I drafted Frank Gore ahead of Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson in multiple leagues, but who is laughing now? I received three emails (including one calling me “an idiot”) telling me how wrong I was about Jake Delhomme having a big season, but those emails have stopped for some reason.

So tell me, who is the real idiot?

Sunday's sleepers

*Jeff Reed

*Arnaz Battle

*Eric Johnson

*Mike Furrey

Super sleeper: Kevin Faulk

Is ESPN reading this blog?

ESPN.com has a story (which I can’t read because it’s an ESPN Insider story and I’m not a sucker) titled, “Head Shrink: Time to Worry about L.J.” Actually, this isn’t much of a “story” considering I’ve been talking about the imminent decline of L.J. for weeks.

If the folks at ESPN are reading this, they should be citing their sources. If they’re not, maybe they should to avoid looking silly by posting a story which I practically wrote prior to week 1. Maybe it’s not fair for me to say the two stories are similar when I’ve never read it, but even if I’m wrong here, ESPN isn’t the only one jumping on the “Should we be concerned about L.J.?” bandwagon after I warned you all to be concerned, and draft Frank Gore before him, on August 27th and September 5th.

Let this serve as just another reminder of why you should have this site bookmarked all season long. Oh, and the best part? I don’t charge for my advice.

And I'll make another prediction...After L.J. struggles against Chicago this week there's going to be even more panic and half of the fantasy world will argue he's rusty and it was a product of a tough defense and the other half will say this is the sign of Johnson's decline. I'm still one of the few actually advocating sitting Johnson this week, let me know how that works out.

Attack the weakness

Houston, Buffalo and Tampa Bay all have struggling and/or injured defenses that will be taken advantage of in the next few weeks. This is especially good news for the passing attacks of Pittsburgh, New England, New Orleans, St. Louis, Carolina and Indianapolis.

The Bills are in an especially rough spot with the loss of a starting safety and a cornerback. This should hurt Marshawn Lynch’s value because the Bills will be finding themselves in big deficits early.

BFFC Challenge

For those interested, I 've posted the scores and schedule below from the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge.

Week 1 results:

Ned Higgins 131.00
Tony Farmer 81.50

Matt Stout 67.83
DON BENJAMIN 79.23

Lee Elci 57.75
Laura Steinmeyer 111.51

Chris & Joe Truman 115.22
Chris Fabry 78.16

Aaron May 103.22
Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. 104.53

MVP Norwich 86.42
Toby Stanley 107.79

Week 2 Schedule:

Don Benjamin vs. Tony Farmer

MVP Sports Bar vs. Ned Higgins

Matt Stout vs. Laura Steinmeyer

Lee Elci vs. Chris Fabry

Chris & Joe Truman vs. Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. ***

Aaron May vs. Toby Stanley

***Game of the Week

Market watch

Fantasy football is much like a stock market in that a good owner needs to know when to buy and when to sell players. Below are some recommendations of those who are overrated and underrated after the first week.

Buy Low:

Cedric Benson – Benson looked horrendous against a stingy Chargers defense Sunday, but there will be plenty of running room in Week 2 against Kansas City so look for him to make it up to you next week.

Bobby Wade – The Vikings best receiver (sorry Troy Williamson fans) did nothing against the Falcons in Week 1, but I attribute that to rust from injury and a match up with a tough Falcons defense which features D’Angelo Hall. Wade won’t be a superstar this season, but considering you can get him for next to nothing, he’s a bargain.

Sell High:

Plaxico Burress – Burress looked amazing Sunday night, but that was likely his best output of 2007. With Eli Manning likely out for a month and Brandon Jacobs hurt, Burress will suffer.

Seattle defense – The Seahawks looked great against Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers’ offense, which isn’t great to begin with, was without Jeff Garcia and Cadillac Williams for some of that time. Cash in before Seattle’s stock plummets.

Mail bag

Below is an email from a reader with my response. I will try to post one question every week from fans as along as you keep sending them.

Hi Tony...I have a dilemma this week regarding my flex starter (RB/WR). I'm planning on starting Shaun Alexander, Maurice Jones-Drew, Anquan Boldin and already started Reggie Wayne. The dilemma is Tatum Bell or Laveranues Coles. For the first half of the week, I had planned on starting Bell but now he's apparently splitting carries so I'm now leaning toward Coles. I know Coles is the Jets #1 WR but he's going against the Pats and Pennington has been shaky. What to do? Oh, I also have TJ Duckett on my bench.~ Brian Conley from Norwich
....
I would go with Coles and hope that if the Pats get up early, you can get some cheap receptions and yards. I'm really not a big Tatum Bell fan if you haven't noticed and because he is smaller than Duckett I wouldnt plan on any TDs from him.

Think twice

Below are players who you may want to think twice about starting tomorrow. I’m not suggesting you necessarily bench the players below because some may actually have decent games. The purpose of the list is to help you make those close decisions of who to start and who to sit because most people consider the names below no-brainers to start and I don’t.

Tom Brady – Conventional wisdom says you need to start New England’s star, but a closer look at the numbers suggests otherwise. It’s true that Brady’s career numbers against the Jets are impressive, but the numbers since former Pats coach Eric Mangini joined the Jets aren’t. Last season Brady’s quarterback ratings were 73.9 and 84.6 against the Jets after tossing just two touchdowns and two picks in two games. Although the Pats got a better offense, the Jets defense got better too. Don’t expect a monster game from Brady.

Lee Evans – In his three career opening day games, Evans has zero career touchdown passes and he’s never caught more than three passes. Add to that the fact that Evans will be matched up with Dre Bly and Champ Bailey and you can consider benching Evans. The only thing that could save him are cheap fourth quarter passes when Buffalo is trailing by double digits and Denver is in a prevent defense.

D.J. Hackett – I like Hackett, but this won’t be one of his best weeks. Word out of Seattle is that Nate Burleson is pushing him for playing time and Seattle might jump out to an early lead which means lots of Shaun Alexander late in the game.

David Martin

Today I gave in and picked up David Martin in the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge league. I've been excited about Martin for months now, but I was hoping I could pick him up later in the season. With a Week 1 contest against Washington, the risk was too high for a big Week 1 game which would prompt another owner to snag him.

Why do I like Martin? Dolphins coach Cam Cameron used Antonio Gates well in San Diego and Trent Green knows a thing or two about utilizing tight ends (ask Tony Gonzalez). Martin is tall and has more speed than a tight end should so he definitely has the tools. Pick him up as a great No. 2 tight end option who has the potential to finish the season inside the top-10 at his position.

History says Johnson doomed

Kansas City coach Herm Edwards recently made it clear that Larry Johnson will be “protected” early on this season. For a fantasy owner, hearing that a coach will be monitoring your No. 1 pick’s carries feels about as good as a Larry Johnson stiff arm.

These recent statements combined with Kansas City’s depleted offensive line and aging offensive weapons like Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez have made Johnson slip out of the top five in many drafts. Should owners really be concerned about a guy who rushed for 37 touchdowns the last two seasons? You bet.

While the aforementioned concerns have been highly publicized, I’m more concerned about Johnson for a less popular reason…he carried the ball an NFL record 416 times last season.

History has proven time and time again that running backs who endure that much punishment in one season either get hurt or see a significant drop off in production the following year.

Below are some examples which should have Johnson owners worried. Oh and don’t forget, he caught 41 passes too.

Jamal Anderson, 1998 (410 carries): Remember the dirty bird? Remember how nasty Jamal Anderson looked? A year after rushing the ball more than 400 times, Anderson notched just 19 carries the next season and he was never the same.

Eric Dickerson, 1986 (404 carries): Although he later revived his career, Dickerson struggled in the two seasons after he carried the ball 400 times, appearing in just 12 games.

Eddie George, 2000 (403 carries): George was on pace to be an easy hall of fame pick until 2001 when he saw a significant drop off in production following his career high 403 carries. In 2001, George only scored five times, had a 3.0 yards per carry and rushed for under 1,000 yards (actually 1,294 yards) for the first time in his career with just over 900 yards.

Terrell Davis, 1998 (392 carries): Davis rushed for just 67, 78, and 167 yards respectively over the next three seasons.

Jamal Lewis, 2003 (387 carries): There’s plenty of off the field blame to go around when it comes to Lewis’ significant decrease in production, but I blame his 2004 campaign, which saw his drop an entire yard off his yards per carry average, partly on his work load in 2003.

QB power rankings

Below I’ve ranked my favorite signal callers for a standard scoring league rewarding fractional points per completion and points for yards.

1. Carson Palmer
2. Peyton Manning
3. Marc Bulger
4. Tom Brady
5. Drew Brees
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Jon Kitna
8. Tony Romo
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Matt Leinart

Sleeper: Jake Delhomme

Please note, spots 4-6 were the toughest to pick because McNabb is in the top-3 when healthy/mobile and the difference between Brady and Brees is microscopic. Also, I have Palmer ahead of Manning because I think the Bengals defense will give Palmer more opportunities.

Sleeper radar

Below you will find some of my favorite sleepers. These are guys who likely weren’t drafted in the first seven or eight rounds of your draft, but can have a major impact this season if the stars align.

Brandon Marshall – Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall worked together with Denver’s second team for a little while and they just seem to be on the same page. Playing alongside Javon Walker means Marshall should have plenty of opportunity to use his 6-4 frame to dominate opposing defensive backs. I love this guy.

Brian Leonard – Don’t expect Leonard to be good enough to hurt Steven Jackson’s value, but Leonard could be a valuable asset in leagues that reward for receptions. Leonard should be good enough to get two or three fantasy points per week for you when you’re desperate for a RB replacement and if Jackson goes down, the sky is the limit.

Chris Cooley – Expect Cooley to thrive in an offense which will struggle to find consistency all season. The lack of receiving options and the fact that Washington is a below average team should both play into Cooley’s hands.

Daniel Graham – The former Patriots’ tight end is a classic boom or bust selection. Graham’s receiving skills are underrated because he used to play with Ben Watson, but I wouldn’t be shocked with six touchdowns from Graham. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t be shocked with another 30 catch season from him either. Stash him on your roster as your second tight end until things shake out.

James Jones – Some owners may not have heard of him, but I fully expect James Jones to be a starter by Week eight. Jones was hot in the preseason and Green Bay’s current starters (Greg Jennings and Donald Driver) are both injury threats.