History says Johnson doomed

Kansas City coach Herm Edwards recently made it clear that Larry Johnson will be “protected” early on this season. For a fantasy owner, hearing that a coach will be monitoring your No. 1 pick’s carries feels about as good as a Larry Johnson stiff arm.

These recent statements combined with Kansas City’s depleted offensive line and aging offensive weapons like Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez have made Johnson slip out of the top five in many drafts. Should owners really be concerned about a guy who rushed for 37 touchdowns the last two seasons? You bet.

While the aforementioned concerns have been highly publicized, I’m more concerned about Johnson for a less popular reason…he carried the ball an NFL record 416 times last season.

History has proven time and time again that running backs who endure that much punishment in one season either get hurt or see a significant drop off in production the following year.

Below are some examples which should have Johnson owners worried. Oh and don’t forget, he caught 41 passes too.

Jamal Anderson, 1998 (410 carries): Remember the dirty bird? Remember how nasty Jamal Anderson looked? A year after rushing the ball more than 400 times, Anderson notched just 19 carries the next season and he was never the same.

Eric Dickerson, 1986 (404 carries): Although he later revived his career, Dickerson struggled in the two seasons after he carried the ball 400 times, appearing in just 12 games.

Eddie George, 2000 (403 carries): George was on pace to be an easy hall of fame pick until 2001 when he saw a significant drop off in production following his career high 403 carries. In 2001, George only scored five times, had a 3.0 yards per carry and rushed for under 1,000 yards (actually 1,294 yards) for the first time in his career with just over 900 yards.

Terrell Davis, 1998 (392 carries): Davis rushed for just 67, 78, and 167 yards respectively over the next three seasons.

Jamal Lewis, 2003 (387 carries): There’s plenty of off the field blame to go around when it comes to Lewis’ significant decrease in production, but I blame his 2004 campaign, which saw his drop an entire yard off his yards per carry average, partly on his work load in 2003.