Fantasy Football

2007-12-25T14:44:00.001-08:00

Playoffs through Week 17?

A buddy of mine said he needed some fantasy football advice and I assumed it was for his dynasty league next year, but he was actually wondering who to start this week. Hopefully my friend and the nine other people in that league are the last fantasy football owners on earth in leagues extending to the last week of the regular season.

It's not about being traditional and it's not about "getting every week out of the regular season." It's about common sense, folks. Open up a newspaper and read how the Steelers are considering benching Ben Roethlisberger for the final game of the season and how the Chargers will be "conservative" with L.T. against the Raiders because of injury.

Please, please, please let's work together to make these silly leagues extinct.

2007-12-25T08:48:00.001-08:00

Happy Holidays

Happy holidays to everyone, but more importantly congrats to everyone who won their league championship game this past weekend. If it was a money league I think you owe me some money since this blog helped, just kidding.

Seriously though, the regular season is winding down so if I forget to tell you later, it's been a great season and I appreciate the comments and especially the emails. Take care and be safe.

2007-12-24T19:11:00.000-08:00

BFFC champs

For those of you wondering...Norwich brothers Chris and Joe Truman easily beat Norwich's Don Benjamin to capture the BFFC title. The Truman brothers take the title from Ned Higgins, who I'm sure you remember beat me by .09 points in the championship game last season.

Thanks again Bubba Franks, even a year later you still impact my blood pressure.

2007-12-23T09:41:00.000-08:00

Sunday sleepers

Here are a few of my sleepers for the rest of the weekend...

Ike Hilliard
Devery Henderson
Arnaz Battle
Laurence Maroney
Kenton Keith

Enjoy the games!

2007-12-19T20:09:00.000-08:00

Hill > Volek?

With 49ers qb Shaun Hill putting up nice fantasy numbers against easy defenses, some are wondering if Hill is going to do what Volek did a couple years ago and reward owners who took a chance on him late in the season.

As someone who follows the 49ers closely, I honestly can't explain where the offense went wrong this season. The WRs are above average, Gore is a top notch back and Vernon Davis is a machine in the middle. Usually when talented offenses don't put up numbers, the coaching staff is to blame but I'm starting to think Alex Smith is just an average QB and Dilfer is washed up. In other words, maybe if Shaun Hill was the 49ers starter Week 1, this season could have turned out a lot different for 49er fans.

Will Hill pull a Volek? Probably not, but he does increase the value for guys like Vernon Davis, Darrell Jackson and Frank Gore in the final two weeks.

2007-12-17T20:59:00.001-08:00

FYI

I am alive and well, but no thanks to the folks at Continental Airlines. It's been a while so I wanted to check in and let you all know you can look forward to my regular coverage starting later in the week...

A flight I was on was canceled twice and delayed once because of ice on the breaks literally had the plane "stuck." Even though the issue was "resolved," how can that not be in the back of your mind during the landing?

Anyways, less complaining and more of the best fantasy football coverage starting tomorrow...

2007-12-14T20:13:00.000-08:00

No. 1 next year

I got one email, and I'm sure there will be more, about my statement that Adrian Peterson will likely be the first overall pick in most fantasy drafts next season. This individual, who didn't disclose the fact that he was a Pats fan, but made it quite obvious, suggested Tom Brady or Randy Moss will be the first overall pick in most drafts.

I'm standing by Peterson. Anyone who averages more than six yards per carry in their rookie season and in an otherwise below average offense, has to be picked No. 1. Period. I don't know who the Vikings will add in the offseason and through the draft, but if they can move Sidney Rice over to the No. 2 spot and put a top WR opposite him, Peterson will have even more room to run. That's a scary, scary thought.

2007-12-12T20:51:00.000-08:00

Calm before the storm

If you own players on the Patriots, Jets, Giants or Redskins it’s time to start worrying.
With serious winter weather headed this way, offensive players on these teams will be also be facing Mother Nature this weekend. You’ve been warned, if you need to add replacements do so ASAP before someone else in a similar situation steals the best player available.
Remember, winter weather is bad news to anyone besides defenses, but especially kickers. If you own Stephen Gostkowski or Lawrence Tynes you need to start looking at games in warmer weather such as Cincinnati-San Francisco, St. Louis-Green Bay or Baltimore-Miami. I like Matt Stover this weekend a lot.

2007-12-11T18:40:00.000-08:00

Random thoughts

Below you will find some random thoughts on my mind heading into Week 15

*Aaron Stecker looked decent Monday night, but so would you against the Falcons. Stecker rarely breaks tackles, but often sprints untouched through a hole before crumbling underneath a tackler. Whatever works, right?

*Bobby Petrino is a coward and a quitter. Enough said.

*There’s definitely some chemistry between Chris Redman and Roddy White.

*So I qualified for one of 5,000 seats in the playoffs of NBC’s 100,000 challenge. Now I sit in 923rd place with three weeks to go. I’m only 83 points back, which isn’t a lot considering you start two Qbs and a “bonus player” (doubled points) every week. Root for me.

*I can’t sleep at night because I keep imagining who the Pats might select with their, more likely than not, top-5 pick in April. If you haven’t heard already, New England get San Fran’s No. 1 pick and that would be No. 2 overall if the season ended today. Look out AFC.

2007-12-10T19:19:00.000-08:00

Defense

Here is some early advice for, what is for most people, the first round of your league’s playoffs. In the NFL we know defense wins championships, and the same can sometimes be said for fantasy football as well.

This week there are a couple of defenses who have the opportunity to put up 20-plus points depending on your league’s scoring chances. Think about the Bengals (you heard right) against the 49ers with some guy named Shaun Hill behind center and the Bears offense should struggle with Kyle Orton and Adrian Peterson in the backfield so the Vikings might be a good bet.

2007-12-08T15:48:00.000-08:00

What to watch

This is an interesting weekend in the NFL to say the least. Below are some things to look for as you're rooting for your fantasy team to squeeze into the playoffs.

*Will the Pats remain undefeated? How will they respond to two close games?

*With Reggie Bush out, how many times will Drew Brees throw the ball?

*What record will Adrian Peterson break vs. the 49ers?

*What can the Rams do with some guy named BRock Berlin? Who is Brock Berlin? Why do all of my points end up being in the form of a question?

*Can the Giants win an important game in December?

If you think you know the answers to these questions prior to their respective kickoffs, drop a comment...

2007-12-07T14:21:00.001-08:00

Shhh...don't wake them

I want to provide you all with some of my favorite sleeper kickers for this weekend. IT's crunch time and few extra points could be the difference between the playoffs and a miserable finish to the season for some folks. This is way before the game so I haven't heard if there will be rain, wind or snow at any games so check that out before you take my advice...

Jeff Wilkins (I don't see the Bengals being able to stop Steven Jackson so Wilkins will get plenty of chances)

Jason Elam (all three Denver RBs are back and Javon Walker is only getting healthier)

Kris Brown (I think the Texans are going to surprise a lot of people this week)

2007-12-05T19:13:00.001-08:00

Kyle Boller

I never thought I'd say this, but picking up Kyle Boller in your fantasy league is actually a pretty good idea. Week 15 Boller and the Ravens meet the Dolphins and there's potential for two or three touchdowns that week. He won't light the world on fire, but he could be a good replacement should your starter go down or you have someone else that week with a tough match-up.

Boller signed a 1-year contract so the motivation is there for him to make an impact with a few weeks to go in the season.

2007-12-04T23:11:00.001-08:00

Crushed

In case you've wondered where I've been lately...I'm still recovering from the Pats-Ravens game which cost me wins in multiple leagues and crushed my chances in NBC's 100,000 challenge. I was sitting in 27th place out of 5,000 qualifiers after Thursday's nights game too.

Ben Watson's two dropped touchdowns weren't very kind to me.

2007-11-30T21:59:00.000-08:00

Denver D

I really like Denver's defense this week against Oakland so pick them up if they're available in your league and you need a win. The Broncos offense is starting to click and once Javon Walker gets involved the rest of the league better watch out. A solid Broncos offense will take pressure off the defense and definitely lead to more turnovers. Furthermore, it is rumored that Oakland will let Jamarcus Russell play this week and a rookie quarterback in his first game could mean lots of turnovers.

2007-11-28T16:16:00.000-08:00

Warning

Those listed below should not start this weekend on any fantasy football roster.

Baltimore defense
Kevin Jones
Javon Walker
Andre Hall
Lamont Jordan

2007-11-27T22:48:00.001-08:00

Asking for help

I would like to ask you all for suggestions on how I could make this blog or the page better for all of you. Let me know what you would like more/less of. Please send suggestions to tonyfarmer45@yahoo.com. Also use that email address if you would like to apply early to be in the Fantasy Challenge league next season and you live in Norwich or one of the 11-12 surrounding towns.

2007-11-27T22:44:00.001-08:00

R.I.P.

Rest in peace Sean Taylor. It’s a shame too many people are talking about your fines on the field and legal troubles off it. My thoughts and prayers are with the Taylor family and the Redskins Organization.

2007-11-26T10:43:00.000-08:00

The Wolfe Man

With recent reports indicating Cedric Benson’s season is over, conventional wisdom suggests you pick up Chicago’s Adrian Peterson, who just became a starter. I like Peterson and completely agree with that advice, but he isn’t the only player who will benefit from Benson’s absence.

Garrett Wolfe, who has been relegated to mainly spot duty on third downs, will get more opportunities. As someone who has seen Wolfe in person while playing for Northern Illinois, I can tell you Wolfe is a serious talent.

I generally hate when people give themselves more evaluating credibility when they’ve seen someone play in person, but in this case the live view gave me so much respect for Wolfe’s speed, which made opposing safeties look like they had on 20 extra pounds of equipment. On that day Wolfe rushed for more than 350 yards against Ball State, and I’ll never forget saying to myself, “If this guy gets an opportunity in the NFL, he’s going to be dangerous.” Wolfe now has that opportunity with Benson going down.

I don’t think Wolfe will have much of an impact this week, but he’s definitely a must-have in keeper leagues and he’s a sleeper candidate for this season’s playoffs.

2007-11-25T19:11:00.000-08:00

What the...?

Can someone explain to me why Bill Belicheat hates Laurence Maroney? The man is one of the best running backs in the game and claims he's healthy yet doesn't get a single first half carry? I understand Madden and Michael's point about Kevin Faulk's style fitting the game plan more, but nobody, including myself, saw this coming.

The thing is, if Maroney scored four times next week I wouldn't be shocked. This team is so hard to figure out, but I suppose that is partly what makes them so good.

2007-11-25T09:15:00.000-08:00

Bench Smith

It may sound crazy vs. the Saints, but do not start Steve Smith this week. With Vinny out, Smith will struggle to find the endzone. I wouldn't be shocked if Smih grabs six or seven passes, but don't expect any to count for six points. I've benched Smith in favor of D.J. Hackett and Lee Evans in one TDheavy league.

2007-11-21T08:53:00.000-08:00

Turkey Day Studs/Duds

Since the Fantasy Football page is printed the day after the three Thanksgiving Day games, I want to provide you all with some studs and duds for Thursday's contests. Enjoy and good luck this week!

Studs:

Greg Jennings: Favre will obviously have a big day, but I suspect it will be Jennings, not Donald Driver, who has that best day among Packers tight ends.

Donald Lee: He's in store for a big game. I'd say his chances of scoring a thanksgiving touchdown are at about 75%.

Duds:

Warrick Dunn: The Colts run defense isn't great, but the Colts will get up big early and that means less carries for Dunn. Do not start unless you are VERY desperate.

Thomas Jones: Same as the Dunn theory. Jones won't get many more than 15 carries so his production will be limited.

2007-11-20T16:09:00.000-08:00

Two new starters

It looks like adding Derrick Ward and Kolby Smith will be the biggest fantasy football trend this week. The latest news I've heard is that Ward might be ready to take over for the injured Brandon Jacobs (you're welcome for those of you who took my advice and traded him away) and Smith might be the new starter in Kansas City.

The news on Holmes' injury is pretty recent and I've already got two emails from people asking my thoughts on Smith. Honestly, I don't like him. However he has a great chance to shine this week because he's playing the Raiders. I've got him on my roster for that reason this week in one league and I'll basically start him as a RB3. Smith will do an average job, upgrade him in points per reception leagues and downgrade him in touchdown heavy formats.

2007-11-16T18:31:00.000-08:00

Chris Henry

I love Chris Henry's match-up with Arizona this week. In fact I'm starting him over Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Jerricho Cotchery and D.J. Hackett in one league. I'm expecting over 100 yards and two scored from Henry who will obviously present Arizona with all sorts of problems. Also, Carson Palmer is in for a big day, but I think that goes without saying.

2007-11-14T19:03:00.000-08:00

Add of the week

If you have someone wasting space on your roster and you're looking to make a move which will add depth to your roster then consider adding Isaac Bruce this week. In Week 2 against San Francisco, Bruce caught eight passes for 145 yards. Bruce will meet the 49ers again this week and their secondary is actually in worse shape than the first time they met.

Bruce has been showing signs as of late as well. The veteran has caught 10 passes for 132 yards the last two weeks as he regains his health. The Rams defense is VERY BAD so that means he'll be on the field a lot. December 2nd Bruce deserves a start in deep leagues against Atlanta and the following week he could start in just about any league against the Bengals.

2007-11-12T20:11:00.000-08:00

Mail bag

Coach-

I've been reading your blog all season, and it has been extremely helpful. I am 5-5 right now and i need to win out. I want to upgrade my QB (Eli Manning) to someone who can put up more fantasy points consistently. I have the option to give up plaxico burress for brett favre, but i fear favre is just on a streak. Will he continue to produce, or should i look elsewhere? Is there an undervalued QB that could be a solid second halfer? My line up is as follows:

Eli Manning
Plaxico Burress
Lee Evans
Maurice Jones Drew
Lendale White
Jason Witten
Chester Taylor
Chris Henry
Greg jennings
Marc bulger
Mason Crosby
SD Def

Any suggestions?

Sincerely,
Mike

Hey Mike,

I would not recommend trading Plax for Favre for a couple reasons. The weather in Green Bay and a renewed commitment to the run game will eventually hurt Favre’s production. Second, having an Eli Manning/Marc Bulger rotation (start Bulger Dec. 2nd) isn’t bad when you’ve got Plaxico on your team. Think of it this way, If Plaxico has a multiple touchdown day, you’ve pretty much guaranteed yourself a win.

As for suggestions, I would actually recommend you stay put for now. As you know, I love the promise of Evans and Henry for the second half of the season and it looks like you can get some production out of Chester Taylor too.

You’re going to love the Chargers’ production too since they play the Chiefs with Brodie Croyle and perhaps no L.J., Jacksonville with a backup QB or unhealthy David Garrard, Baltimore’s struggling offense, and the Lions who couldn’t even rack up positive rush yards last week.

In other words, I think you’ve already got the pieces to make a second half run. Good luck.

2007-11-12T17:07:00.000-08:00

Desperation moves

If you held out for Shaun Alexander or Deion Branch and were dissapointed with nes they will be out tonight, then you're likely scrambling for a RB/WR replacement right about now. I recomend Ashley Lelie and and Leonard Weaver is Maurice Morris is taken. I'd take those guys over Maurice Hicks and Michael Robinson.

I think the conditions are right for Weaver to notch a touchdown tonight.

2007-11-11T17:50:00.000-08:00

Taylor made

Nobody knows the extent of Adrian Peterson's injury so go grab Chester Taylor if he's in your free agent pool. The Vikings offensive line makes anyone an instant top-15 running back so Taylor, who has plenty of starting experience, is surely worth a spot on your roster while we wait for word on Peterson.

2007-11-10T19:45:00.000-08:00

Another option

Another WR option became available this week when it was announced Marvin Harrison will definitely be out Sunday night against the Chargers. Since Anthony Gonzalez is also out, Aaron Moorehead is likely to start and see plenty of targets from Peyton Manning. Consider Moorehead an average WR3 start for your squad this weekend.

What kind of an impact will this have on the rest of the Colts? Downgrade Manning slightly and Wayne slightly as well. Some say Wayne benefits from Harrison's absence because of increased targets, but I say increased double teams hurt more. Joseph Addai should get more carries and should benefit the most.

2007-11-06T16:03:00.000-08:00

The Priest

I don't care if you're a Larry Johnson owner. I don't care if you're not even a football fan. How can anyone not feel good for Priest Holmes this week as he gets a start against a shoddy run defense (Denver).

Some reports are even suggesting Larry Johnson is out for the season. If that's the case, Holmes will get a chance to touch the ball 15 times a game as he'll likely share carris with Kolby Smith. Both Smith and Holmes should no longer be free agents in your league. If they aren't grab 'em.

2007-11-05T18:43:00.000-08:00

Random fantasy notes

*Bengals WR Chris Henry has been activated this week and faces a decent match-up against Baltimore next week. Usually games against Baltimore aren’t considered decent match-ups, but I’m watching Big Ben dismantle the Ravens who are without their top two cornerbacks. It’s tough to tell how much rust Henry will have, but I promise he will be a great WR2 option on your team well before the fantasy playoffs start. Hopefully you took my repeated advice and picked him up a few weeks back.

*All the talk about Broncos running back Travis Henry suggests his pending suspension is becoming less of an issue and some even suggest Henry may not miss a game this season if he and his legal team continue to stall. However, nobody seems to be asking the following question: If the Broncos season ends up in the toilet (some would argue it’s there now), would it not be in the team’s best interest to eat the suspension now and gear up for next season?

*Brandon Jackson has ticked off many fantasy owners who drafted him with the idea that he would be a starting back. Jackson should be a free agent in every league on the planet, but I say don’t count him out yet. Wynn is out of the picture, Morency is a third down back and Grant hasn’t proved to me that he can take a 20-carry pounding each week. He may not be worth a spot on your roster yet, but monitor Jackson’s carries each week and be ready to pull the trigger.

2007-11-04T09:17:00.000-08:00

Last-minute suggestion

San Francisco 49ers RB Michael Robinson would make a great flex option this week since it's just been announced Frank Gore will be out (ankle). Robinson is a decent redzone runner and he's a former QB (Penn State) so a trick play or two might be in order and you could squeeze out a lucky TD pass.

2007-11-03T19:51:00.000-07:00

Super Sleepers

Below are three players who I'm calling "super sleepers." Only start them in deeper leagues and if you're desperate.

*Ladell Betts

*Rian Lindell

*Delanie Walker

2007-11-01T19:53:00.000-07:00

Go get 'em

If D.J. Hackett, Chris Henry (WR), Vernon Davis or L.J. Smith are free agents in your league...go get 'em. Lee Evans won't be a free agent, but could be had for cheap so make a deal. I expect big things from Evans in the second half now that J.P. Losman has taken over

2007-10-31T16:23:00.000-07:00

Week 9 Sleepers

Below you will find some early sleepers for Week 9. Good luck this week and Happy Halloween!

*Vernon Davis

*Lee Evans

*Jerious Norwood

*Vincent Jackson

*Oakland’s defense

*Mike Furrey

2007-10-29T22:07:00.000-07:00

Monday night fun

Could the Packers' running back situation change any more? With the fragile DeShawn Wynn on the sideline, Ryan Grant looked very impressive. Grant is worth grabbing in all leagues and you can safely drop Brandon Jackson and Vernand Morency.

Also, keep an eye on Denver's Andre Hall who picked up his first career carry tonight. Selvin Young is clearly Denver's best running back when Travis Henry is out, but Young is also injury prone and Hall could get some touches if Henry's suspension goes through. Don't pick Hall up yet, but keep one eye on him.

2007-10-27T18:55:00.000-07:00

MAIL BAG

Question:

Hi Tony....What's your opinion on Shaun Alexander? He was my first pick this
season (4th overall) and as you know, he hasn't done much this season.
Obviously, he's killing me every week yet I can't seem to sit him - very
frustrating! It's a miracle I have 3 wins so far.
Anyway, do I continue to play him after this week or should I try to
trade him? If I look to trade him, what type of caliber player should I
be looking for. I would think I would be selling low but I don't want
to go too low.
Thanks...Brian from Norwich

Response:

Hey man,

It's kind of tough to tell you who you should be
looking for because I don't know what your roster
looks like or what your needs are, but you should be
thrilled to pull off an Alexander for Marshawn Lynch
deal right now. Or, perhaps a Jamal Lewis + a decent
WR for him.

Hope this helps.

--Tony

2007-10-27T17:11:00.001-07:00

Sleepers

Below are some of my favorite sleepers this week…

*Michael Robinson

*Alex Smith

*Jason Wright

*Jesse Chatman

*Jerricho Cotchery

2007-10-24T20:03:00.000-07:00

Need a laugh?

I just had to pass this information along because I read it 30 minutes ago and I'm still laughing...I've copy and pasted it from www.rotoworld.com...Enjoy!

"Dolphins LB Channing Crowder, who appears likely to start in the middle Sunday against the Giants with Zach Thomas ailing, says he didn't know until Tuesday that people in London speak English.
'I couldn’t find London on a map if they didn’t have the names of the countries," he said. "I swear to God. I don’t know what nothing is. I know Italy looks like a boot. I know London Fletcher. We did a football camp together. So I know him. That’s the closest thing I know to London. He’s black, so I’m sure he’s not from London. I’m sure that’s a coincidental name.' "

2007-10-23T17:04:00.000-07:00

Eat the meat

By now Jesse Chatman has likely been plucked from your free agent pool and some lucky sole is dangling him like a piece of meat in front of the owners desperate for running backs.

While I don’t normally advocate feeding waiver poachers, I have to suggest it here. Cam Cameron has always been in love with Jesse Chatman and there’s no reason to suspect Chatman will see less carries than Brown had been getting thus far this season. Chatman will get a chance to be a feature back and if he fails he may be forced to split time with Patrick Cobbs and/or Lorenzo Booker, but I don’t think he’ll fail.

Unfortunately, the loss of Chris Chambers hurts Chatman’s value (and it would have hurt Ronnie Brown’s just as much, if not more) and he’s on an awful team which will be trailing late in many games. Still though, Chatman will be a No. 2 or No. 3 running back for the rest of the season and I would trade guys like DeShaun Foster or Warrick Dunn for him in a heartbeat.

2007-10-19T18:24:00.000-07:00

Need a TE rental?

I’ve gotten two emails this week asking for help selecting an emergency tight end. It’s no surprise since New England tight end Benjamin Watson and Falcons tight end Alge Crumpler will likely be out this week along with starters Donald Lee, Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow Jr.

This wasn’t easy and it took some time, but I think I’ve dug up a couple gems for this weekend who are sure to be available in your league if you’re in the same boat as the two emailers. Interestingly they’ll both be playing in the same game. Grab Kyle Brady and David Martin.

2007-10-19T10:19:00.001-07:00

Wire grabs

Here is a list of people you should consider grabbing if available in your league.

Roydell Williams - He's getting a chance to start with Brandon Jones out he's got something to prove. Also his bye week is done so he can provide you depth every week.

Priest Holmes - Worth an add in deeper leagues or TD heavy leagues. I don't know what to expect, but if you have the moves why not try it?

Chris Henry - I've explained this before, he'll be great when he comes back from suspension.

Nate Kaeding - The Chargers offense was coming to life before the addition of Chris Chambers, the trade only means more weapons ans more points.

Devin Hester - Hester showed what he can do on offense last week and the Bears offense has no choice, but to keep trying him out.

Vernon Davis - People may be throwing the bust card on Davis already, but trust me he's not. He's back from injury this week, go get him.

L.J. Smith - He may still be a week or so away from being a big impact, but L.J. Smith would be nice to have on your bench if you play Donovan McNabb in the playoffs.

2007-10-18T17:17:00.000-07:00

Weekend surprises

Below are a couple surprises to look for this weekend.

*I fully expect the Rams to notch their first win this week against the Seahawks.

*Lee Evans will grab 6-7 catches against the Ravens which is saying a lot since the Ravens are a good defense and Evans has been a complete disaster this season.

*Plaxico Burress will not put up the type of numbers he has been. He’ll get one touchdown if he’s lucky, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was held out of the end zone and didn’t reach 100 yards.

*Peyton Manning won’t throw more than two touchdowns.

* Drew Brees will throw for 289 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and 9 rushing yards.

2007-10-18T08:42:00.000-07:00

FYI

The fantasy page will run in Saturday's paper this week rather than Friday's paper. Also, I'll be updating my blog tonight so look forward to another post soon.

2007-10-14T21:07:00.000-07:00

Monday night advice

Below is some quick advice for Monday's game.

*The Giants defense should go off against an Atlanta offensive line which has several key players missing from it. Expect 5+ sacks from the G-Men.

*I don't expect much from Norwood or Dunn because of the aforementioned O-Line woes. I would start Derrick Ward over Dunn or Norwood if you have the chance to grab him from the FA pool.

*If, by chance, anyone needs a sleeper this week...start Michael Jenkins.

2007-10-12T19:39:00.000-07:00

Watch ‘em

Below are two deep sleepers who could be on the cusp of helping your team, but I’m not confident enough in their ability to suggest picking them up. If any of these players bust out in the next few weeks, pick them up because it should be a sign of things to come.

*Ashley Lelie: Lelie’s lack of statistics is not the result of poor play, it’s the result of not playing. The 49ers receiver has only been on the field for 10 snaps, and coach Mike Nolan is saying Lelie will see more playing time going forward.

*Sidney Rice: The Vikings passing game isn’t very sexy, but Rice might be turning into the team’s best receiving threat. Keep an eye on this rookie.

2007-10-11T20:19:00.000-07:00

Jackson out until Week 10? Told ya.

According to the St. Louis Post Dispatch, Steven Jackson could be out until Week 10.

I challenge the world to find one fantasy expert, besides myself, who went on the record after Steven Jackson’s injury and said he would be out for more than two-three weeks. I did just that in my In my September 27th column titled “Hit the waiver wire now” and I feel confident saying I’m literally the only person on the planet who was correct about this. If I’m wrong send me the link and I’ll give you credit on my blog, but I’ve tried myself and couldn’t find one so chalk another one up for the Coach.

Incase you missed it, here’s what I said in the aforementioned article, “The Rams claim their top back will be out two-three weeks with a partial groin tear (ouch), but you’ve got to wonder if they’re downplaying the injury. The last thing the morale of a 0-3 team needs is news that their franchise back is out 5-6 weeks.”

http://www.norwichbulletin.com/sports/fantasy/x680958000

And for the record, I was also one of the few who was on Leonard’s bandwagon prior to the season.

2007-10-10T13:04:00.000-07:00

Cast your votes

Feel free to reply to this thread and let us know you think is the biggest fantasy bust so far:

*Shaun Alexander

*Larry Johnson

*Maurice Jones Drew

*Lee Evans

*Drew Brees

My vote is for Brees because there were some warning signs with the first three players and Evans had a great year last year, but not close to Brees' production.

2007-10-08T17:34:00.000-07:00

You've been Warnered

I swear I’ve been meaning to make a post encouraging you all to pick up Kurt Warner, and now that he’s officially Arizona’s starter it’s a no-brainer.

Luckily nobody can accuse me of being a Monday morning quarterback since I have a history of massaging Kurt Warner’s ego and I did briefly mention on the 27th in the Bulletin, “If you’ve got roster space and Kurt Warner is a free agent in your league, go get him. It seems inevitable Warner will take over as the team’s top quarterback and if he does, he’ll have more weapons than Lockheed Martin and a favorable schedule.”

That favorable schedule is as follows: Carolina, Washington, bye, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland, Seattle, New Orleans, Atlanta, St. Louis.

Warner’s numbers have been solid in limited time this season (five total touchdowns, one interception) and don’t forget that two of his three games were against two of the toughest defenses in the NFL (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). Also, Anquan Boldin wasn’t available for two of those games and he will be in the future.

Oh, and don’t let other people tell you he’s too old to make it an entire season because Warner just turned 36 (he’s younger than Favre) this summer and his body has had plenty of time to rest. I've had Warner on the bench is several of my leagues and I was thrilled to see Leinart get hurt Sunday.

2007-10-06T13:44:00.000-07:00

Sit ‘em

I highly recommend sitting anyone listed below in Week 5. You’ve been warned.

*Warrick Dunn – Jerious Norwood is always a threat, but the Titans defense is better against the run than you think.

*Seattle defense – They might force a couple turnovers, but if your league penalizes for points allowed, sit Seattle this week.

*Jamal Lewis – He won’t touch the ball more than 17 times and that’s not good for his final stat line.

*Rian Lindell – His team should be on the wrong end of a blowout.

2007-10-04T19:37:00.000-07:00

That didn't take long

Before the season began I said, "Go pick up Selvin Young from your free agent pool. Mr. Young is Denver’s new backup to Travis Henry, who has missed 14 games in the last three seasons."

Now reports indicate that Travis Henry will be suspended for the entire season thanks to a positive marijuana test.

Score another one for the Coach. Oh...and you're welcome.

2007-10-03T18:02:00.000-07:00

Sleepers

Below are my favorite Week 5 sleepers:

*Sam Hurd

*Ladell Betts

*Donald Lee

*Antwaan Randle El

*Drew Brees (I’m giving him one more chance)

*Kurt Warner (Nobody will have the guts to start him, but I have a good feeling here against his former team in the dome)

2007-10-02T17:40:00.000-07:00

BFCC Schedule

Week 5:

Tony Farmer (2-2) vs. Stan Sims Sr./Jr. (3-1)

Chris Fabry (0-4) vs. Ned Higgins (3-1)

Laura Steinmeyer (3-1) vs. Don Benjamin (3-1) *

Matt Stout (1-3) vs. Toby Stanley (2-2)

Lee Elci (1-3) vs. Aaron May (1-3)

MVP (1-3) vs. Chris/Joe Truman (4-0)

*Game of the Week

2007-10-01T17:27:00.000-07:00

Need some depth?

Remember Chris Henry? Perhaps you should start remembering the last time he was on the field for a regular season game. Henry torched a good Steelers defense for 124 yards and a touchdown, and he’s scored five times in his last four regular season games.

Why am I bringing this up? You should be adding Chris Henry to your fantasy team right about now if you can afford to have a “dead” roster spot until he is eligible to play again in November.

Make no doubt about it, Henry is without a doubt the best fantasy No. 3 wide receiver in football. If you own Rudi Johnson or especially Carson Palmer, adding Chris Henry is a must.

Since I know you’re wondering…Henry and the Bengals will play St. Louis, San Francisco, and Cleveland weeks 14, 15, and 16.

2007-10-01T17:03:00.000-07:00

BFFC trades

Below are some recent trades in the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge. Please weight in and express your opinion.

September 29th: Chris and Joe Truman trades Javon Walker and Roddy White to Aaron May for Wes Welker and Joey Galloway.

September 27th: Tony Farmer trades Anquan Boldin and Travis Henry to Aaron May for Frank Gore.

September 27th: Tony Farmer trades Lendale White and Arnaz Battle to Chris and Joe Truman for Derrick Mason and Warrick Dunn.

Note: My previously mentioned Derrick Ward-Joe Horn for Joey Galloway-Wes Welker trade was vetoed after four owners expressed concern.

2007-09-27T21:39:00.000-07:00

BFFC Challenge Schedule

Week 4:

Chris Fabry vs. Tony Farmer

Laura Steinmeyer vs. Ned Higgins *

MVP Sports Bar vs. Don Benjamin

Matt Stout vs. Stan Sims Sr. & Jr.

Lee Elci vs. Toby Stanley

Chris & Joe Truman vs. Aaron May

*Game of the Week

2007-09-26T10:42:00.000-07:00

Early sleepers

Here are some Week 4 sleepers:

*Darrell Jackson (vs. Seattle)

*Jon Kitna (vs. Chicago)

*Patrick Crayton (vs. St. Louis)

*James Jones (vs. Minnesota)

*Lee Evans (vs. N.Y. Jets)

2007-09-24T17:05:00.000-07:00

Marshall Plan

Brandon Marshall, AKA Mini T.O., proved himself this week to all the doubters who didn’t believe me when I called him the 2007 version of Marques Colston.

I am proud to say I own Marshall in every single one of my leagues and I drafted him in all, but one. Marshall has tallied 17 catches for 267 yards and a touchdown this season, and those numbers should be a lot better.

I usually hate when fantasy owners talk about points they “should have had” but in this case I can’t resist. Marshall could easily have two more touchdowns this season because he was tackled at the one yard line Sunday and nearly broke a tackle that would have given him a touchdown in overtime last week.

A closer look into Marshall’s numbers suggest he will be racking up plenty of touchdowns this season. Of his 17 catches this season, Marshall has notched 14 first downs and a touchdown.

2007-09-24T16:42:00.000-07:00

Add Leonard

It was announced today that Rams running back Steven Jackson has a partially torn left groin. Stop grimacing and squirming and go pick up Brian Leonard. Seriously, could that sound anymore painful?

Of course if you listened to me on September 2nd, you would already have Leonard on your roster.

(On September 2nd I said the following, “Brian Leonard – Don’t expect Leonard to be good enough to hurt Steven Jackson’s value, but Leonard could be a valuable asset in leagues that reward for receptions. Leonard should be good enough to get two or three fantasy points per week for you when you’re desperate for a RB replacement and if Jackson goes down, the sky is the limit.”)

If you took my advice, you will thank me soon because Leonard has all the tools to be an great RB2 in most leagues. Most “experts” are only willing to calling him a “decent flex option” but they are underestimating him. Leonard’s backup is Travis Minor, who is no threat to vulture goal line carries and he has great hands.

Oh and if you want to see something cool...go to Google, click on "images" and type "Brian Leonard leap." It's his trademark.

2007-09-22T17:08:00.000-07:00

Best sites

I thought I would share with you all some of my favorite fantasy football related websites. Feel free to share your favorites as well....

*www.rotoworld.com

*www.rotowire.com

*www.fftoday.com

*www.cbssportsline.com

2007-09-20T17:00:00.000-07:00

Weekend sleepers

*Jeff Garcia

*Jeff Reed

*Sammy Morris

*Vernon Davis

*LenDale White

2007-09-19T19:53:00.000-07:00

BFFC Trade Alert

Two trades went down today in the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge. Details are below.

*Chris and Joe Truman (2-0) trade Fred Taylor and Amani Toomer to Chris Fabry (0-2) for Eddie Kennison and Dallas Clark

*Tony Farmer (1-1) trades Derrick Ward and Joe Horn to Aaron May (1-1) for Joey Galloway and Wes Welker.

The first deal is interesting because nobody really knows when Eddie Kennison will return. The length of his injury could determine who got the better end of the deal. The second trade is interesting because I have Brady and none of his receivers until I landed Welker and May has Brandon Jacobs so Ward will give him protection.

2007-09-17T16:31:00.000-07:00

Sound the Horn

My pickup of the week is Joe Horn, whose stock couldn’t get much lower after two awful outings. Horn is a free agent in some leagues and can be had for chump change in other leagues because age has caught up to him.

While it’s true Horn isn’t the same guy he was five years ago, I think owners are forgetting these two games came on the road and in Atlanta’s two toughest games of the season in terms of passing defense. The Falcons remaining opponents are Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, New York Giants, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, St. Louis, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Arizona.

Could it get any easier against the pass? The more Horn and Harrington work together they better they’ll be. Look for Horn’s production to improve starting next week.

2007-09-16T23:22:00.000-07:00

A hushed crowd

Where are all the doubters? I guess they're busy wiping egg of their faces.

Of all the preseason advice I offered, two of the suggestion that drew the most criticism involved Frank Gore and Jake Delhomme. Some laughed when I drafted Frank Gore ahead of Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson in multiple leagues, but who is laughing now? I received three emails (including one calling me “an idiot”) telling me how wrong I was about Jake Delhomme having a big season, but those emails have stopped for some reason.

So tell me, who is the real idiot?

2007-09-15T17:50:00.000-07:00

Sunday's sleepers

*Jeff Reed

*Arnaz Battle

*Eric Johnson

*Mike Furrey

Super sleeper: Kevin Faulk

2007-09-14T00:37:00.000-07:00

Is ESPN reading this blog?

ESPN.com has a story (which I can’t read because it’s an ESPN Insider story and I’m not a sucker) titled, “Head Shrink: Time to Worry about L.J.” Actually, this isn’t much of a “story” considering I’ve been talking about the imminent decline of L.J. for weeks.

If the folks at ESPN are reading this, they should be citing their sources. If they’re not, maybe they should to avoid looking silly by posting a story which I practically wrote prior to week 1. Maybe it’s not fair for me to say the two stories are similar when I’ve never read it, but even if I’m wrong here, ESPN isn’t the only one jumping on the “Should we be concerned about L.J.?” bandwagon after I warned you all to be concerned, and draft Frank Gore before him, on August 27th and September 5th.

Let this serve as just another reminder of why you should have this site bookmarked all season long. Oh, and the best part? I don’t charge for my advice.

And I'll make another prediction...After L.J. struggles against Chicago this week there's going to be even more panic and half of the fantasy world will argue he's rusty and it was a product of a tough defense and the other half will say this is the sign of Johnson's decline. I'm still one of the few actually advocating sitting Johnson this week, let me know how that works out.

2007-09-13T20:08:00.000-07:00

Attack the weakness

Houston, Buffalo and Tampa Bay all have struggling and/or injured defenses that will be taken advantage of in the next few weeks. This is especially good news for the passing attacks of Pittsburgh, New England, New Orleans, St. Louis, Carolina and Indianapolis.

The Bills are in an especially rough spot with the loss of a starting safety and a cornerback. This should hurt Marshawn Lynch’s value because the Bills will be finding themselves in big deficits early.

2007-09-13T05:32:00.000-07:00

BFFC Challenge

For those interested, I 've posted the scores and schedule below from the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge.

Week 1 results:

Ned Higgins 131.00
Tony Farmer 81.50

Matt Stout 67.83
DON BENJAMIN 79.23

Lee Elci 57.75
Laura Steinmeyer 111.51

Chris & Joe Truman 115.22
Chris Fabry 78.16

Aaron May 103.22
Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. 104.53

MVP Norwich 86.42
Toby Stanley 107.79

Week 2 Schedule:

Don Benjamin vs. Tony Farmer

MVP Sports Bar vs. Ned Higgins

Matt Stout vs. Laura Steinmeyer

Lee Elci vs. Chris Fabry

Chris & Joe Truman vs. Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. ***

Aaron May vs. Toby Stanley

***Game of the Week

2007-09-11T19:30:00.001-07:00

Market watch

Fantasy football is much like a stock market in that a good owner needs to know when to buy and when to sell players. Below are some recommendations of those who are overrated and underrated after the first week.

Buy Low:

Cedric Benson – Benson looked horrendous against a stingy Chargers defense Sunday, but there will be plenty of running room in Week 2 against Kansas City so look for him to make it up to you next week.

Bobby Wade – The Vikings best receiver (sorry Troy Williamson fans) did nothing against the Falcons in Week 1, but I attribute that to rust from injury and a match up with a tough Falcons defense which features D’Angelo Hall. Wade won’t be a superstar this season, but considering you can get him for next to nothing, he’s a bargain.

Sell High:

Plaxico Burress – Burress looked amazing Sunday night, but that was likely his best output of 2007. With Eli Manning likely out for a month and Brandon Jacobs hurt, Burress will suffer.

Seattle defense – The Seahawks looked great against Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers’ offense, which isn’t great to begin with, was without Jeff Garcia and Cadillac Williams for some of that time. Cash in before Seattle’s stock plummets.

2007-09-08T21:45:00.000-07:00

Mail bag

Below is an email from a reader with my response. I will try to post one question every week from fans as along as you keep sending them.

Hi Tony...I have a dilemma this week regarding my flex starter (RB/WR). I'm planning on starting Shaun Alexander, Maurice Jones-Drew, Anquan Boldin and already started Reggie Wayne. The dilemma is Tatum Bell or Laveranues Coles. For the first half of the week, I had planned on starting Bell but now he's apparently splitting carries so I'm now leaning toward Coles. I know Coles is the Jets #1 WR but he's going against the Pats and Pennington has been shaky. What to do? Oh, I also have TJ Duckett on my bench.~ Brian Conley from Norwich
....
I would go with Coles and hope that if the Pats get up early, you can get some cheap receptions and yards. I'm really not a big Tatum Bell fan if you haven't noticed and because he is smaller than Duckett I wouldnt plan on any TDs from him.

2007-09-08T16:27:00.000-07:00

Think twice

Below are players who you may want to think twice about starting tomorrow. I’m not suggesting you necessarily bench the players below because some may actually have decent games. The purpose of the list is to help you make those close decisions of who to start and who to sit because most people consider the names below no-brainers to start and I don’t.

Tom Brady – Conventional wisdom says you need to start New England’s star, but a closer look at the numbers suggests otherwise. It’s true that Brady’s career numbers against the Jets are impressive, but the numbers since former Pats coach Eric Mangini joined the Jets aren’t. Last season Brady’s quarterback ratings were 73.9 and 84.6 against the Jets after tossing just two touchdowns and two picks in two games. Although the Pats got a better offense, the Jets defense got better too. Don’t expect a monster game from Brady.

Lee Evans – In his three career opening day games, Evans has zero career touchdown passes and he’s never caught more than three passes. Add to that the fact that Evans will be matched up with Dre Bly and Champ Bailey and you can consider benching Evans. The only thing that could save him are cheap fourth quarter passes when Buffalo is trailing by double digits and Denver is in a prevent defense.

D.J. Hackett – I like Hackett, but this won’t be one of his best weeks. Word out of Seattle is that Nate Burleson is pushing him for playing time and Seattle might jump out to an early lead which means lots of Shaun Alexander late in the game.

2007-09-06T16:56:00.000-07:00

David Martin

Today I gave in and picked up David Martin in the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge league. I've been excited about Martin for months now, but I was hoping I could pick him up later in the season. With a Week 1 contest against Washington, the risk was too high for a big Week 1 game which would prompt another owner to snag him.

Why do I like Martin? Dolphins coach Cam Cameron used Antonio Gates well in San Diego and Trent Green knows a thing or two about utilizing tight ends (ask Tony Gonzalez). Martin is tall and has more speed than a tight end should so he definitely has the tools. Pick him up as a great No. 2 tight end option who has the potential to finish the season inside the top-10 at his position.

2007-09-05T19:37:00.000-07:00

History says Johnson doomed

Kansas City coach Herm Edwards recently made it clear that Larry Johnson will be “protected” early on this season. For a fantasy owner, hearing that a coach will be monitoring your No. 1 pick’s carries feels about as good as a Larry Johnson stiff arm.

These recent statements combined with Kansas City’s depleted offensive line and aging offensive weapons like Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez have made Johnson slip out of the top five in many drafts. Should owners really be concerned about a guy who rushed for 37 touchdowns the last two seasons? You bet.

While the aforementioned concerns have been highly publicized, I’m more concerned about Johnson for a less popular reason…he carried the ball an NFL record 416 times last season.

History has proven time and time again that running backs who endure that much punishment in one season either get hurt or see a significant drop off in production the following year.

Below are some examples which should have Johnson owners worried. Oh and don’t forget, he caught 41 passes too.

Jamal Anderson, 1998 (410 carries): Remember the dirty bird? Remember how nasty Jamal Anderson looked? A year after rushing the ball more than 400 times, Anderson notched just 19 carries the next season and he was never the same.

Eric Dickerson, 1986 (404 carries): Although he later revived his career, Dickerson struggled in the two seasons after he carried the ball 400 times, appearing in just 12 games.

Eddie George, 2000 (403 carries): George was on pace to be an easy hall of fame pick until 2001 when he saw a significant drop off in production following his career high 403 carries. In 2001, George only scored five times, had a 3.0 yards per carry and rushed for under 1,000 yards (actually 1,294 yards) for the first time in his career with just over 900 yards.

Terrell Davis, 1998 (392 carries): Davis rushed for just 67, 78, and 167 yards respectively over the next three seasons.

Jamal Lewis, 2003 (387 carries): There’s plenty of off the field blame to go around when it comes to Lewis’ significant decrease in production, but I blame his 2004 campaign, which saw his drop an entire yard off his yards per carry average, partly on his work load in 2003.

2007-09-03T15:55:00.000-07:00

QB power rankings

Below I’ve ranked my favorite signal callers for a standard scoring league rewarding fractional points per completion and points for yards.

1. Carson Palmer
2. Peyton Manning
3. Marc Bulger
4. Tom Brady
5. Drew Brees
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Jon Kitna
8. Tony Romo
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Matt Leinart

Sleeper: Jake Delhomme

Please note, spots 4-6 were the toughest to pick because McNabb is in the top-3 when healthy/mobile and the difference between Brady and Brees is microscopic. Also, I have Palmer ahead of Manning because I think the Bengals defense will give Palmer more opportunities.

2007-09-02T19:10:00.001-07:00

Sleeper radar

Below you will find some of my favorite sleepers. These are guys who likely weren’t drafted in the first seven or eight rounds of your draft, but can have a major impact this season if the stars align.

Brandon Marshall – Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall worked together with Denver’s second team for a little while and they just seem to be on the same page. Playing alongside Javon Walker means Marshall should have plenty of opportunity to use his 6-4 frame to dominate opposing defensive backs. I love this guy.

Brian Leonard – Don’t expect Leonard to be good enough to hurt Steven Jackson’s value, but Leonard could be a valuable asset in leagues that reward for receptions. Leonard should be good enough to get two or three fantasy points per week for you when you’re desperate for a RB replacement and if Jackson goes down, the sky is the limit.

Chris Cooley – Expect Cooley to thrive in an offense which will struggle to find consistency all season. The lack of receiving options and the fact that Washington is a below average team should both play into Cooley’s hands.

Daniel Graham – The former Patriots’ tight end is a classic boom or bust selection. Graham’s receiving skills are underrated because he used to play with Ben Watson, but I wouldn’t be shocked with six touchdowns from Graham. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t be shocked with another 30 catch season from him either. Stash him on your roster as your second tight end until things shake out.

James Jones – Some owners may not have heard of him, but I fully expect James Jones to be a starter by Week eight. Jones was hot in the preseason and Green Bay’s current starters (Greg Jennings and Donald Driver) are both injury threats.

2007-08-31T15:47:00.000-07:00

Get Young

Go pick up Selvin Young from your free agent pool. Mr. Young is Denver’s new backup to Travis Henry, who has missed 14 games in the last three seasons. Mike Shanahan loves this guy for some reason and he’s got good hands out of the backfield so he might be a 3rd down back.

The only way Shanahan would be raving about Young is if he’s a great fit for Denver’s running scheme, so go get him. Travis Henry owners, this is a must. Mike Bell owners, I would drop Bell and pick up Young. You’ve been warned.

In other news…Byron Leftwich will be released or traded according to several sources so it’s safe to drop Byron for Garrard. I see Garrard as an average No. 2 quarterback and an excellent option for anyone who has Maurice Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor.

2007-08-30T20:49:00.000-07:00

Three notes

Some random notes from Thursday’s preseason games...

*LenDale White and Chris Brown distanced themselves from rookie Chris Henry in the race for carries, but they may have tightened the race with each other. Brown had two catches for 10 yards and seven carries for 42 yards. White had 58 yards on 15 carries, one catch for 19 yards, one devastating block and a 21-yard gain on fourth down. This should be good news for owners of both backs, but I’ll give the nod to White.

*Larry Johnson rushed for 12 yards on three carries. Big deal right? Well Johnson owners should be taking a sigh of relief now that their first-round pick has taken a few hits after holding out much of the summer.

*If Kevin Jones went on the Physically Unable to Perform list and you want a super sleeper... Remember T.J. Duckett? Pick him up in deeper leagues because Tatum Bell is rather inconsistent.

2007-08-29T15:53:00.000-07:00

Overpriced

Whether name recognition or gullibility is to blame, some NFL players consistently get drafted way too early each year. This season I participated in four drafts and it seems people are falling in love with the same overrated players. Below are players who owners in your league probably overpaid for.

*Clinton Portis – The Redskins are supposed to split carries about 50-50 between Portis and Ladell Betts. Portis is more likely to be injured (again). Betts is a better goal line back in my opinion, and in limited time last season Betts notched more passes than Portis has in the last five seasons. So why is Portis getting drafted three rounds before Betts? Name recognition, silly fantasy magazines and owners who fall victim to both.

*DeShaun Foster – Foster is a perfect example of someone who is a solid running back, but a horrible fantasy back. The Panther has never played an entire season, penetrates like a butter knife at the goal line (only seven career touchdowns), and has only six 100 yards games in his career. Stay away.

*Warrick Dunn – Despite the fact that he’s injured, getting old and has only scored seven times in the past season Dunn was still drafted like it’s 1999. Like the Portis, Betts situation, Jerious Norwood will get the most out of this situation.

A couple random notes:

*I have changed the setting so that anyone can post responses and you don’t have to sign up. Sorry I didn’t do that sooner.

*If you’re lucky enough to be in southeastern Connecticut this Friday, be sure to get your copy of the Norwich Bulletin and grab the first Fantasy Football page of the 2007 season.

2007-08-28T17:28:00.000-07:00

Trade winds

Adam Schefter (NFL Network) reported today that wide receivers Chris Chambers, Reggie Williams, and Michael Clayton are all being shopped by their current teams. Even though there’s a good chance no deals actually get done, you should be thinking about the implications of these trades. As I will explain, they involve more people than you may think.

First let’s examine the potential teams who could be looking to upgrade at wide receiver. Tennessee, Minnesota, and Houston are potential suitors because all three lack quality No. 2 receivers. This means if you own Bobby Wade/Troy Williamson, Roydell Williams/Brandon Jones or Kevin Walter/Jacoby Jones then a trade would make one of your wide receivers worth virtually nothing. If you want to play it safe it might be wise to trade these players while they are worth something.

If Williams were trade, this would be good news for Jaguars wide receivers Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford, who Williams has always shared the crowded position with. If Chambers is dealt, Marty Booker’s value would climb big time because he would be the new No. 1. Ted Ginn Jr. would likely be thrust into the starting lineup as well.

I would be shocked if Clayton is dealt because I can’t see anyone paying a 7th rounder for him. His departure would have little impact on the Bucs’ passing game because he’s a non-factor at this point, but he could benefit from a fresh start on another roster.

2007-08-27T19:34:00.000-07:00

Buyer beware

Here’s a list, in no particular order, of 10 players whose 2007 campaign will be much worse statistically than last season and the reason.

1. Isaac Bruce – Age, decreased role.
2. Joey Galloway – Age
3. Mike Furrey – Decreased role
4. Larry Johnson – Supporting cast
5. Chester Taylor – Decreased role
6. Tatum Bell – Schedule
7. Michael Vick – Stupidity
8. J.P. Losman – Schedule, desperation INTs
9. Willie Parker – Similar yards, but fewer TD opportunities
10. Jamal Lewis – Supporting cast, fewer opportunities

2007-08-26T16:40:00.000-07:00

Mt. Vernon

I know I’m not the first to predict that 2007 will be a breakout season for Vernon Davis, but I also don’t know of any credible experts who are willing to say he is the second best fantasy tight end in the league.

Other than Antonio Gates, nobody in the NFL will put up better numbers than a healthy Davis who will problems all season long for opposing defenses who will quickly their linebackers are too slow and their safeties are too small to stop him.

Last season Davis showed flashes of brilliance, and that was during a season in which he was learning a new playbook, getting acclimated to the speed of the NFL, and recovering from injury. This season the 49ers have much better receiving threats (Ashley Leile and Darrell Jackson to replace Antonio Bryant), an improved offensive line, a young quarterback with another year of experience and a favorable schedule.

Despite what your fantasy magazine is telling you…Tony Gonzalez, Alge Crumpler and company are not better options than Davis.

2007-08-25T21:53:00.000-07:00

Moss Factor

So many people have speculated about the impact a healthy and motivated Randy Moss could do for Tom Brady’s 2007 statistics. Add a deep threat like Donte Stallworth to the picture and it’s no wonder why Tom Brady is consistently being drafted in the first three rounds of most drafts.

While it’s true that Tom Brady now has more options than Brady Quinn on a Friday night, the true impact of Moss will show up in the stats of Laurence Maroney. With opposing safeties and linebackers having to drop into coverage to respect vertical threats like Moss, Stallworth and Ben Watson, the running lanes will open up wider than Michael Strahan’s gap.

New England’s schedule features cupcakes like Washington, Buffalo (x2), and Cleveland so early leads should amount to clock milking and extra carries for Maroney. At the age of 22, Maroney is a must-have for keeper league owners and is worthy of a top-8 pick this season.

2007-08-25T20:25:00.000-07:00

BFFC draft results

Year two of the Bulletin’s Fantasy Football Challenge began today at MVP Sports Bar in Norwich. The 18-round, 12-team draft lasted two hours and was chuck full of steals and the occasional head scratcher.

For those interested, the first round results are below. In my defense, I knew I would draw criticism after taking Frank Gore over Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson, but I still feel good about it. I think Larry Johnson is going to look human this season and Alexander isn’t the receiving threat that Gore is in a league that rewards for receptions.

FIRST ROUND:
1. LaDanian Tomlinson (Toby Stanley)
2. Steven Jackson (MVP Sports Bar)
3. Joseph Addai (Don Benjamin)
4. Reggie Bush (Laura Steinmeyer)
5. Frank Gore (The Coach)
6. Larry Johnson (Ned Higgins)
7. Shaun Alexander (Chris/Joe Truman)
8. Laurence Maroney (Chris Fabry)
9. Brian Westbrook (Team Bully)
10. Peyton Manning (Stan Sims Sr. & Jr.)
11. Willie Parker (Lee Elci)
12. Rudi Johnson (Aaron May)

2007-08-25T20:18:00.001-07:00

It’s good to be back

I would just like to welcome everybody back to the best source of QUALITY fantasy football analysis on the internet. Other sites may have more content but as readers last year found out, this is the place to be for information that will help you get the edge you need to win.

Last season I warned you about eventual studs like Ladell Betts and Marques Colston while ripping apart and proving wrong national “experts.” You can expect more of the same this season so bookmark me and reap the benefits.

2006-12-28T12:37:00.000-08:00

Two questions

I have a couple questions for you guys, and it would be nice if you would respond by adding a comment on here, but my email tfarmer45@yahoo.com also works fine. First, I'm wondering if anyone actually plays in a league that tracks points for Week 17. I was in a league like this a while back, but I think the commish basically screwed up. Wondering if studs and duds for this week would help or not.

Also, I'm looking for some feedback on this blog and the fantasy page on Saturdays. Would you guys like to see it back? What about a fantasy baseball page? Let me know your thoughts.

2006-12-27T11:23:00.000-08:00

Lets be Frank

All fantasy football owners know about Frank Gore by now, and you knew all about him prior to this season if you read my preseason studs and duds.

Although this season isn’t over, I’m predicting a monster year for Gore next season, and for the rest of his career really. As Alexander and Larry Johnson age, Frank Gore will be hitting his peak years, and that’s partly why I would take Gore over any other running back besides LaDanian Tomlinson in a keeper/dynasty league.

If you need more reasons, look no further than the 49ers salary cap situation which figures to be one of the best in the NFL next season. San Francisco will be 42.1 million dollars under the cp next season according to Peter King and they expect to have eight picks in the first four rounds of the draft after the compensatory selections are handed out. This is great news for Gore and Alex Smith so jump on the bandwagon now before it gets full.

2006-12-26T20:30:00.000-08:00

Results

The final results of the Bulletin Fantasy Challenge Championship Game are in. Woodstock's Ned Higgins beat me 81.92-81.83. That's .09 points. That's two yards. That is disgusting. Once again, thank you Bubba Franks.

If anyone else has any horror stories they would like to share, then help yourself.

2006-12-24T18:31:00.000-08:00

Score update

I know some of you are following the Norwich Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge closely, so here's an update. I hold a 1.23 point lead over Ned Higgins in the Championship game, but he has Chris Chambers going tommorow night and I have nobody. One 15 yard catch and I'm done. I have to hope he gets hurt or fumbles or something to have a chance.

The score righyt now is 81.83-80.6. I would like to say happy holidays to everyone besides for Bubba Franks who cost me 9.1 points this week on a holding call and a dropped touchdown from Brett Favre. I will NEVER forgive you for that Bubba. NEVER.

2006-12-21T11:45:00.000-08:00

Tonight’s studs and duds

Studs

Anyone who is lucky enough to watch the game on television tonight despite the greedy minds in the corner offices of the National Football league

Donald Driver – Words can’t describe how bad the Vikings pass defense is. Expect Driver to light them up.

Chester Taylor – He’s back from injury and don’t worry about rust. Taylor should easily get 15 carries and a score.

Duds

Tavaris Jackson - A lot of rookies have had immediate impacts like Ben Roethlisberger last year or Matt Leinart in his first start this season. Don’t be fooled into thinking Jackson will do something similar tonight. Sure the frozen tundra has lost some of its luster in recent years, but it’s not the place you want to make your first NFL start.

Minnesota defense – With the aforementioned rookie signal caller behind center, there could be a lot of three and outs, which would put a lot of pressure on the Vikings defense. Rookie quarterbacks also tend to turn the ball over at inopportune times, so that could set the Packers up for some short drives.

2006-12-19T10:41:00.000-08:00

Bad game plan

Rudi Johnson owners must have been drooling over the prospects of playing the Colts defense on Monday night football during fantasy football playoff time. Johnson had a decent game with 79 yards and a touchdown, but there was potential for so much more.

Last week Indianapolis allowed Fred Taylor and rookie Maurice Jones-Drew to destroy them and a week later Johnson only gets 22 carries? What is wrong with this picture? More importantly, what is wrong with Cincinnati’s coaching staff? Granted, the Bengals have one of the best passing games in football, but the Colts have allowed 2,427 yards rushing (almost 400 yards more than anyone else) and a league high 18 rushing touchdowns. Instead of kicking the Colts while they were down, the Bengals elected to let them off the hook by throwing the ball 28 times with Carson Palmer.

A 12-year-olds with enough experience playing Madden on a Playstation could have come up with a better game plan.

2006-12-19T10:30:00.000-08:00

Championship time

For those following the Norwich Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge, I have posted last weekend’s semifinal results so you don’t have to wait until Saturday’s paper.

Ned Higgins 99.49 over Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. 75.41

Tony Farmer 93.11 over Marty Reardon 69.25

Reardon and the Sims duo picked a bad week to have one of their worst performances all season. The victories by Higgins and I puts us into the championship game against each other. Higgins defeated me 127.06-84.25 in Week 7, and I’ll be looking for revenge this weekend.

Keep an eye on the Thursday games because I will start Greg Jennings, Ahman Green and Brett Favre against Minnesota and Higgins will start Donald Driver, Favre’s favorite weapon.

2006-12-16T00:14:00.000-08:00

More studs n' duds

Studs

Braylon Edwards: So you’re worried because Edwards is playing against a tough Ravens defense, huh? Don’t be. Edwards showed Baltimore who was in charge with five catches, 116 yards and a score in Week 3.

Devery Henderson: Feed the hot hand. Henderson and Brees have been on fire lately and you can expect that to continue against Washington this week.

Duds

Matt Leinart: The rookie will look like one this week against Denver. Don’t start him unless you are desperate.

Joseph Addai – I expect the Peyton Manning to throw for a season-high in the attempts category and that’s not good for anyone in Indy’s backfield.

2006-12-14T09:16:00.000-08:00

Thursday night fun

Below are my predictions for tonight’s game. Enjoy.

Must start: Frank Gore

Studs: Vernon Davis, Shaun Alexander, Maurice Morris

Duds: Both passing games and both kickers

Sleepers: Arnaz Battle, Bobby Engram

Note: This post was edited 45 minutes before kickoff to refelct changes based on a scary weather report.

2006-12-12T18:49:00.000-08:00

Playoff picture

Below are the week 14 scores in the Bulletin Fantasy Football Challenge. This means that Norwich Bulletin Fantasy Football expert Tony Farmer will meet Marty Reardon in one semifinal game and regular season winner Ned Higgins will meet Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. for the other slot. To the eight non-playoff teams, thanks for playing.

Tony Farmer 119.17 – Joe Truman 105.32 *Game of the week
Stan Sims Sr. & Jr. 134.40 – Duane Maranda 79.03
Jemal Davis 77.7 – Rodney Blais 49.06
Marc Romano 90.92 – Don Benjamin 88.43
Frank Chester 126.59 – Marty Reardon 88.76
Ned Higgins 119.85 – Bryon McClellan 55.63

2006-12-11T21:52:00.000-08:00

Desperate measures

Below you will find guys to pick up from the free agent pool if you are desperate for a sleeper in your playoffs because of one of the many injuries.

*JUSTIN GRIFFITH – He had 12 carries for 57 yards while filling in for Atlanta’s two injured backs on Sunday and he could be starting next week if those guys don’t heal quick. He is a fullback so his size automatically makes him a decent goal line threat.

*JAMAL JONES - He caught two big passes (one officially) after Marques Colston went out with an injury. So many receivers are coming out of New Orleans, so why not him?

* MIKE KARNEY – I really don’t think there is anything to make of his three touchdown performance last week, but the title of this entry is “desperate measures.”

2006-12-10T23:28:00.000-08:00

Are you ready for some football?

Here's a little bit of what I expect Monday night.

Studs: Jeff Wilkins, Torry Holt, Thomas Jones

Duds: Desmond Clark, Rex Grossman

Sleeper: Brian Griese

2006-12-09T17:30:00.000-08:00

More weekend advice

*Donald Driver should do some damage to a banged up 49ers secondary, so expect a big day for him, Favre and kick Dave Raymer.

*I expect Lee Evans to have a great day Sunday.

*Jason Campbell will look horrendous against the Eagles so don’t start him or any of his receivers, including Moss. Chris Cooley, might have a decent day though. Jeff Garcia should have a great day against the Skins who have allowed a league high 23 touchdowns and collected a league low five interceptions.

*The Giants’ defense is getting healthy and have a great opportunity against the Panthers, who will likely be starting Chris Weinke. It would be Weinke’s first start in four years and there’s a reason he’s been sitting the bench.

* Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson should both have big games against the Rams, who rank near the bottom of the league in rush defense.

*Sleepers of the week: Joe Nedney and Kevin Faulk.

2006-12-08T08:20:00.000-08:00

Weekend tips

I hope nobody is depending on a big game from Peyton Manning or the Colts receivers. If you are, I suggest taking a look at Manning’s numbers against the Jaguars earlier this year: 14-for-31 with 219 yards and one touchdown. Although he did bounce back with a nice game, last season against the Jaguars Manning went 13-for-28 with no touchdowns, an interception and a season-low 122 yards. In other words, Manning has completed less than 50 percent of his passes against Jacksonville two out of the last three times he has faced them. Making matters worse, I expect the Jaguars to give Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew the ball all day Sunday which will stretch the clock and give the Colts offense fewer opportunities.

*There is opportunity for some great offensive production in San Francisco. Ahman Green and Frank Gore should both top 100 yards and each quarterback is in position for their best game of the season. Both defenses are weak and that’s also good news for Dave Raymer and Joe Nedney owners.

*Javon Walker owners who were cheering the benching of Jake Plummer are nowhere to be seen now. It will be very interesting to see what Walker does against a good defense (San Diego) Sunday. If he struggles again, you may want to consider benching Walker in the playoffs.

*Another game that should be full of offensive production and fun to watch is the Sunday night game between New Orleans and Dallas. With or without Joe Horn or Marques Colston, I expect the Saints to be throwing deep all night and the Cowboys should have plenty of success running. Once again, I expect another good day for both kickers.

2006-12-06T10:39:00.000-08:00

Power play

I really like the Steelers defense tomorrow night against the Browns. Some might be wondering why I’m endorsing starting Pittsburgh after it needed a late rally to beat Cleveland 24-20 just three short weeks ago. Well not only are the Steelers a good start, I believe they will have one of the three best defensive performances by weeks end.

First off, 14 of those 20 points came off of special teams and defensive plays so the Steelers defense really only allowed six points that day. Second, the Browns will either be starting an injured Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson who would be making his first career start. This is the kind of news that gets defenses fired up.

In that last meeting the Steelers collected four sacks, which is pretty impressive considering they were trailing much of the game. Expect a different script this time around as the Steelers will be the ones leading and their defense will benefit tremendously. Last week the Steelers put up a dominant performance against the Bucs and you can expect much of the same tomorrow.

2006-12-03T21:50:00.000-08:00

Notes from Sunday

*The Jay Cutler decision was a mistake. The unfortunate thing for Broncos fans is that there is virtually no chance Jake Plummer is re-named the starter because Denver coach Mike Shanahan needs to save face. For Javon Walker owners like myself, this is very bad news.

*Ben Utecht found the endzone for the first time this season as I predicted, but his moment of glory was stripped from him by the men in stripes. Bad call.

*Maurice Jones-Drew continues to make owners look smart while simultaneously being a thorn in the side of Fred Taylor owners. The undersized change of pace back has now scored a touchdown in three-straight games and in five of his last seven contests.

*Matt Jones had a great day with six catches and 128 yards, but I think anyone who claims to have a solid understanding of Jacksonville’s passing attack is a liar.

*Rex Grossman has fallen apart so fast. If Brian Griese doesn’t get the start soon, I think Grossman ought to invest in a body guard.